Future Horizons:
10-yearhorizon
Novel welfare systems fail to match rapid changes in employment
25-yearhorizon
AI self-improvement drives new social contracts
The deployment of AI is among the important shifts. AI is already affecting the economics of the workplace, with the potential to dramatically increase productivity in some sectors,3 while displacing various roles.4 Lower- and middle-income countries, already bypassed by industrialisation, face an even steeper path if AI takes over both manufacturing and service jobs, especially if the economic value it creates becomes concentrated in the hands of a few technology companies and their investors.
Another threat is the possibility of a dangerous AI race without adequate societal controls, driven by capitalist and geopolitical competition. AI development is resource-hungry, exacerbating global inequality and geopolitical tension, and such a race may prioritise rapid development over safety and environmental concerns like energy and water consumption for data centres. How governments and transnational organisations protect public interests in this scenario is an important open question, which will also require the integration of ecological economics and transnational economics in determining how the knowledge economy evolves.
All this is forcing economists and policy-makers to rethink traditional assumptions and ask difficult questions about values, well-being, control of technology and wealth distribution. As AI transforms the digital and real economy, the greatest challenge will be to ensure that society acts to ensure this process benefits all and not just the powerful few.5
Economics of knowledge - Anticipation Scores
The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:
- The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
- The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
- The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.
This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.



