Use the future to build the present
Computational Diplomacy
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1Quantum Revolution& Advanced AI2HumanAugmentation3Eco-Regeneration& Geo-Engineering4Science& Diplomacy1.11.21.31.42.12.22.32.43.13.23.33.43.54.14.24.34.44.5HIGHEST ANTICIPATIONPOTENTIALAdvancedArtificial IntelligenceQuantumTechnologiesBrain-inspiredComputingBiologicalComputingCognitiveEnhancementHuman Applications of Genetic EngineeringRadical HealthExtensionConsciousnessAugmentation DecarbonisationWorldSimulationFuture FoodSystemsSpaceResourcesOceanStewardshipComplex Systems forSocial EnhancementScience-basedDiplomacyInnovationsin EducationSustainableEconomicsCollaborativeScience Diplomacy
1Quantum Revolution& Advanced AI2HumanAugmentation3Eco-Regeneration& Geo-Engineering4Science& Diplomacy1.11.21.31.42.12.22.32.43.13.23.33.43.54.14.24.34.44.5HIGHEST ANTICIPATIONPOTENTIALAdvancedArtificial IntelligenceQuantumTechnologiesBrain-inspiredComputingBiologicalComputingCognitiveEnhancementHuman Applications of Genetic EngineeringRadical HealthExtensionConsciousnessAugmentation DecarbonisationWorldSimulationFuture FoodSystemsSpaceResourcesOceanStewardshipComplex Systems forSocial EnhancementScience-basedDiplomacyInnovationsin EducationSustainableEconomicsCollaborativeScience Diplomacy

Sub-Field:

4.2.1Computational Diplomacy

The world of diplomacy is rich in data. The United Nations and other international forums have detailed records of debates, speeches and negotiations going back decades. Then there are databases recording demographics, trade, finance, spending and so on. Until now, this data has not been well used to inform the process of diplomacy, to amplify cooperation and to improve outcomes. With the emergence of computational diplomacy, and its use of big data, machine learning and computational thinking, this looks set to change.

There is much low-hanging fruit here. The networks of actors on the international stage are already beginning to be mapped6, giving a deeper understanding of the connections that can influence negotiations. The text databases at some international organisations are also being mined using natural language processing to study the way language use evolves over time, to measure the consistency of statements and how this might be used to better understand future discussion.

There is still much more that can be done. Computational approaches will allow researchers to model the various aspects of real-world diplomacy and to simulate the outcomes of different approaches, for example. The hope is that this will lead to more fruitful outcomes from future diplomatic interactions.

Developing the expertise that can manage and exploit these processes is a significant challenge. Future actors in this area will need a good grounding in computer science as well as a fluency in the language and process of diplomacy, and building this capacity is a key short-term goal.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Higher education establishments broaden skill sets for scientists and diplomats

Efforts to build capacity for computational diplomacy bear fruit in the form of an increased range of courses and training programmes.

10-yearhorizon

Text mining shows its worth on the global stage

In helping to finalise the language in several major agreements and in helping to prevent “forum shopping” by several state actors, text mining shows its potential and is set to become a standard tool in international negotiations.

25-yearhorizon

Computational diplomacy reshapes international relations as a science

The successes with text mining and other data-driven applications allow experts to create a robust theory of diplomacy that makes testable predictions and creates useful frameworks for diplomatic interactions.

Computational Diplomacy - Anticipation Scores

How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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