Around 80 per cent of the world’s population is at risk from infection by viruses or parasites transmitted by vector organisms like mosquitoes, ticks and fleas. These vectors transmit the disease directly into a person’s body, often by biting them. Gaining a measure of control over these vectors could have significant benefits for global health.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Success in mosquito control

Field experiments demonstrate that mosquito populations can be controlled by releasing individuals that are genetically or otherwise modified. Biologically modified vectors reduce mosquitoes transmitting diseases such as dengue fever.

10-yearhorizon

Synthetic biology harnessed

These methods are validated on other insect-borne diseases — such as Zika and chikungunya. The tools of synthetic biology, including genetics, are in widespread use to control vector organisms.

25-yearhorizon

Vector microbiomes put to work

Affected countries experience drastic cuts in annual cases of vector-borne diseases, while climate change moves outbreaks north. Researchers learn how to disable or destroy vector organisms through action on the microbiome.

A number of emerging tools can directly control vector organisms. For example, altering the gut microbiome of mosquitoes or tsetse flies can make it impossible for them to host the parasites responsible for disease development in humans.¹⁴

Similarly, genetically modified Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have been released in Florida, carrying a gene that kills females in the larval stage.¹⁵ The mosquitoes carry a range of diseases including Zika, but it is hoped that the female-lethal gene will spread and cause the population to dwindle, reducing transmission of the pathogens.¹⁶ Previously, trials have used mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia bacteria, which have successfully reduced the transmission of dengue.¹⁷

Alongside these control mechanisms, we need to develop indicators of ecological health that influence disease risk: essentially, early-warning systems for outbreaks. A crucial step in devising such systems will be to integrate surveillance of human and animal diseases.¹⁸ At present these are monitored separately, often by distinct agencies.¹⁹

Vector control - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.