A number of emerging tools can directly control vector organisms. For example, altering the gut microbiome of mosquitoes or tsetse flies can make it impossible for them to host the parasites responsible for disease development in humans.14‘The microbiome and mosquito vectorial capacity: rich potential for discovery and translation’Microbiome, Vol. 9, p.111.
Similarly, genetically modified Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have been released in Florida, carrying a gene that kills females in the larval stage.15‘First genetically modified mosquitoes released in the United States’Nature, Vol. 593, p.175. The mosquitoes carry a range of diseases including Zika, but it is hoped that the female-lethal gene will spread and cause the population to dwindle, reducing transmission of the pathogens.16‘Controlling vector-borne diseases by releasing modified mosquitoes’Nat Rev Microbiol, Vol. 16, p.508. Previously, trials have used mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia bacteria, which have successfully reduced the transmission of dengue.17‘Efficacy of Wolbachia-Infected Mosquito Deployments for the Control of Dengue’N Engl J Med, Vol. 384, p.2177.
Alongside these control mechanisms, we need to develop indicators of ecological health that influence disease risk: essentially, early-warning systems for outbreaks. A crucial step in devising such systems will be to integrate surveillance of human and animal diseases.18‘Towards integrated surveillance-response systems for the prevention of future pandemics’Infect Dis Poverty, Vol. 9, p.140. At present these are monitored separately, often by distinct agencies.19‘Integrated community based human and animal syndromic surveillance in Adadle district of the Somali region of Ethiopia’One Health, Vol. 13, p.100334.
The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:
This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.
