A key goal for science diplomacy is to find ways to balance strategic cooperation against competition. Science diplomacy has traditionally established itself as a way to use science as a “soft power” that can advance diplomatic objectives. The 50th anniversary of signing the Antarctic Treaty, for instance, engaged diplomatic and academic communities in the use of science diplomacy as a tool for improving multilateral relations. Commitments to science-based diplomacy have since been incorporated into national strategies and policies, opening new avenues for cooperation. This has been important in establishing positive communication and diplomacy, helping collaborative navigations of “global commons” issues such as COVID-19, climate change, exploitation of space, deep-sea mining and managing Arctic and Antarctic resources.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

National bodies call for action over resources held in common

Studies of large parts of oceans protected from exploitation — Marine Protection Areas — provide evidence that international action can bring about significant beneficial change to global commons. Tensions between the US, Russia and China over Arctic resources grow more intense, involving science diplomats in both collaborative and competitive activities.

10-yearhorizon

Lunar exploration and regional concerns bring challenges

Lunar missions from a number of nations highlight the necessity and importance of science diplomacy to tackle the issues these activities raise. As nations seek to shorten supply lines and strengthen trade links, new regional interest blocs emerge. This changes balances of geopolitical power, and science-resource sharing and collaborations openly mirror economic patterns.

25-yearhorizon

Trained experts in science diplomacy begin to steer policy

Decades-long training initiatives mean that science and diplomacy-savvy professionals begin to reach positions of influence in their respective careers, fields and countries. The task of balancing national interests against multilateral interests remains challenging.

At the same time, however, the reality of global politics and geo-economics means that there are increasingly areas of tension that involve science and technology.¹ In the openness vs security dilemma, the rise in tensions between certain countries is leading to move the balance towards greater security, with traditionally open and liberal countries shifting their stance. Canada, for instance, has been applying a new “Policy on Sensitive Technology Research and Affiliations of Concern” since the beginning of 2024.²

Negotiations over the location of key science projects such as the Future Circular Collider are all potential sources of conflict and competition: science diplomacy is being used to leverage national and regional power, calling into question the mainstream vision of science diplomacy as inherently at the service of peace.

Science diplomacy for effective multilateralism - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.