For a number of years now, quantum-computing researchers have spoken of computing with “noisy, intermediate-scale quantum” (NISQ) processors.²¹ These processors are not able to perform applications such as those using Shor’s algorithm, which requires large-scale, fault-tolerant, error-corrected quantum computers. However, there may be near-term applications where small, noise-affected machines can still perform useful tasks, , especially given the growing number of noise-mitigation solutions.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Niche applications make small-scale quantum computing useful

Bespoke algorithms running on small, noisy quantum processors radically improve resolution of sensing, and are also used for materials and chemistry applications. NISQ processors running in academic labs provide useful insights into noise and other fundamental issues in quantum computing. International trade and collaboration restrictions, imposed due to unfounded fears about decryption capabilities, stifle progress in this era.

10-yearhorizon

New application ideas flood the market

Algorithms designed for NISQ processors are adapted to improve the performance of larger-scale quantum computers. Interest stimulated by initiatives such as the XPRIZE creates a flood of new application ideas, many of which have positive impacts in niche areas.

25-yearhorizon

NISQ machines become learning tools

NISQ processors are largely superseded for computing purposes, but remain useful for workforce training and algorithm development.

One area of imminent application is in light-activated cancer drugs.²² Quantum computation allows researchers to design drugs with molecular energy states that allow them to be activated with particular wavelengths of light, which makes the process of generating cancer-killing reactive oxygen species less harmful to the patient than can be achieved using classical means.

Near-term quantum computers could also speed up readouts from quantum sensors and machine-learning-based tasks,²³ and simulate realistic models of materials, thanks to recent understanding of measures that can reduce the resources required by several orders of magnitude.²⁴ XPRIZE Quantum Applications, a competition designed to generate algorithms that can help solve current real-world challenges, may also stimulate progress.²⁵ (GESDA is the presenting sponsor of this initiative.)

Near-term applications of quantum computing - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.