The tools and products of synthetic biology have potential applications in manufacturing and many other industries, including farming. Much of this work is at an early stage and there are few commercial products as yet.¹⁹ Key challenges include scaling up lab-based experiments in a commercially viable way²⁰ and controlling synthetic organisms and their interaction with their environment.²¹

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Engineering starts to scale

Multiple engineered cell lines are used to synthesise chemical products. Increasingly systematised methods are available for engineering cellular factories. New bioreactors are specialised for products like cultured meat, with AI control systems to maximise efficiency and scalability, enabling smooth transitions from lab-scale to industrial scale. New growth media for animal cells are achieved, perhaps derived from microbes. Transgenic crops are made resistant to certain stressors, based on changes to corresponding pathways.

10-yearhorizon

Rational design comes of age

Rational design of tissues for chemical and materials synthesis becomes the norm. More efficient photosynthesis is achieved in genome-edited crop plants, which are fertilised sustainably and monitored using biosensors. Synthetic systems, including cell-free systems, are starting to be used for manufacturing many products at scale. New feedstocks for manufacturing, including waste and simple carbon molecules like carbon dioxide, are available. Research improves culturing of engineered cells for food production, perhaps with synthesis pathways for essential nutrients such as vitamins. Cell-based manufacture becomes routine. New approaches for distributed manufacturing mature.

25-yearhorizon

Synthetic biology is integrated into other technologies

Research achieves widespread integration of synthetic biology into other technologies such as electronics. Generic customisable systems for culturing engineered microorganisms for chemical synthesis begin to appear. Biological catalysis outperforms traditional pure chemistry approaches on efficiency or price. 30 per cent of materials are produced biologically. Engineered crop plants are able to resist multiple stressors associated with extreme environments, based on multiple genomic changes. New flavours for food not found in nature are designed, based on detailed mapping of flavour components and their chemical or genetic underpinnings. Entirely new plants are grown.

The most obvious potential is in chemistry and materials science, as micro-organisms such as bacteria or yeast can be engineered to synthesise chemicals²² and materials.²³ In effect, living cells are used as factories.²⁴ Thanks to catalytic enzymes, biological systems can often perform syntheses at lower temperatures and pressures than traditional chemical systems, saving energy and reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. There is untapped potential in the engineering of microbial communities and multicellularity, rather than single cells, for these purposes.²⁵

As well as purely biological systems, synthetic biology may be integrated with other forms of technology. For instance, there is growing interest in synthelectronics, which fuses electronics and synthetic biology.²⁶ Living photovoltaic solar cells²⁷ are one possible application.²⁸

An area of increasing interest is the use of synthetic biology to produce food and its ingredients. Examples of this include the use of microbial cells to produce specific molecules such as vitamins, the use of plant cells and biomass to make plant-based meat alternatives, and the use of animal cells to make cultivated meat.²⁹

Finally, many actors are attempting to apply synthetic biology to agriculture. For instance, it may be possible to re-engineer photosynthesis, the process by which green plants use sunlight to make sugars from CO₂. More efficient photosynthesis could lead to increased crop yields.³⁰ In the longer term, it may also be possible to engineer the fates of plant cells, optimising the morphology of the plants for new environments.³¹

Manufacturing, industry and agriculture - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.