Better understanding of our impacts will come from improvements in monitoring, for instance by robotic surface vehicles,55 and in expanding our observations to the remote deeps.56 There is great potential for citizen scientists to contribute,57 both to ocean observations and to conservation.58 New blue industries like marine aquaculture may have key roles both in our economies and in marine conservation.59 Capacity-building and knowledge transfer will be crucial to understand all parts of the ocean, from the south to north, and shallow to deep.
Managing the oceans is a major geopolitical challenge.60 A key challenge is to determine, by leveraging scientific expertise and co-design, which kinds of policy interventions will be the most beneficial and have the fewest unintended consequences. The BBNJ (Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction) treaty,61 once ratified, will regulate the sustainable use of marine genetic resources (MGR), environmental impact assessments (EIA) and area-based management tools (AMBTs) such as Marine Protected Areas in the ocean outside national boundaries.62 Successes in ocean diplomacy, such as with the adoption of the BBNJ treaty, will need to be built upon to assist future ocean science and conservation efforts.63 Conservationists are increasingly exploring radical ideas such as granting legal rights to nature.64
The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:
This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.
