5-yearhorizon
Biomarkers of cognitive decline are understood
Results from several ongoing trials yield biomarkers of normal cognitive decline; new studies give robust evidence of which methods can slow the cognitive decline that comes with age.
Cognition comprises elements including executive function, focus, cognitive flexibility and working memory. While these can be impaired by a variety of disorders, the most common pathway of deterioration is through ageing. For older individuals, cognitive enhancement can delay or compensate for cognitive decline, prolonging autonomy.3
Future Horizons:
×××
10-yearhorizon
Research provides effective brain-boosting techniques
A Chinese study yields experimental results on what empirically can prevent premature cognitive decline. New insights from biomarkers show which types of cognition respond best to what kind of boosting.
25-yearhorizon
Digital modelling improves intervention outcomes
Digital models of brains will help us to predict outcomes of interventions and perform experiments in silico, rather than in people and animals. A combination of genetic engineering and implants will allow widespread enhancement of intelligence in healthy individuals.
Successful enhancement of healthy cognition will require a foundation of more specific, mechanistic theories, and may require consensus around hallmarks of “normal” cognition, and how and under what circumstances it could or should be enhanced. An early study is under way in China to benchmark average markers of brain health against age, which could underpin future early-warning systems of an abnormal rate of decline and illuminate interventions that work to halt such decline.4 Other trials now underway promise to yield biomarkers of good cognitive function.
There is still much to learn about why different enhancing techniques seem to have a differential impact on enhancing cognition in healthy humans across the lifespan. Physical exercise seems to be particularly effective in children;5 non-invasive brain stimulation is a good candidate to compensate for cognitive decline in ageing;6 playing action video games may provide a route to improved cognition in healthy adults7, which might provide advantage in dynamic, information-driven work environments. Open research questions include whether boosting some aspects of cognition could have hidden downsides.8
Fundamentals of cognition - Anticipation Scores
The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:
- The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
- The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
- The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.
This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.
Powered By