One of the challenges for democracy is to engage the widest range of people in its practice and activity. Digital tools offer powerful new ways to do this by offering alternative means for citizens to debate and discuss, to communicate, to find solutions, to allocate resources and, ultimately, to govern.

Future Horizons:

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5-yearhorizon

Digital tools become commonplace in local community projects

Small-scale institutions such as town councils and community associations increasingly rely on digital tools that gather data from and about communities to decide how to allocate resources, such as for maintaining roads, funding schools and reducing crime. Concerns about late adopters of digital technologies are given proper consideration.

10-yearhorizon

Digital-aware politicians gain an advantage

Machine-learning algorithms trained on the output of digitally-gathered data provide new insights into community priorities. Politicians engaging with these priorities grow in popularity, thereby reinforcing the importance of digital inputs and participatory frameworks.

25-yearhorizon

Algorithms become vital tools in the democratic process

Advances in the science of complex systems combine with digitally-gathered data and increased access to machine learning algorithms. The result is a mechanism that prompts politicians and policy-makers towards solving real-world problems collaboratively and to measure the success of measures taken.

This creates the potential for dramatic changes in democracy, making it more representative, more efficient and more capable. That said, challenges will remain. Much effort will be needed to engage the broadest range of citizenry so that no groups are disenfranchised, particularly the elderly and technologically disadvantaged. ² Furthermore, digital tools also open the way for malicious actors to subvert democracy and to undermine society: securing public confidence will require a transparent design and operation of a robust, reliable and trustable, sufficiently participatory framework.

Digital democracy - Anticipation Scores

The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate:

The uncertainty related to future science breakthroughs in the field
The transformative effect anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society
The scope for action in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs.

This chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the Anticipation Potential for the topic. See methodology for more information.