In only a few decades, scientific and technological advances have transformed our societies, and continue to have unanticipated consequences on how we function as individuals, how we relate to each other, and how we interact with the environment, our planet and its resources. Fuelled by rapidly growing AI capabilities, the rate of change is likely to even accelerate further — which is why it has never been more vital that we anticipate, and therefore use, the future to build the present.
Practising science anticipation emphasises the need both to anticipate science and technology, and to employ a methodology rooted in research and following its principles of peer review, academic rigour and subject-matter expertise. An anticipation rooted in science also recognises the capacity of research itself as one engine of anticipation — the capacity to make disciplined inquiries into those things we need to know but do not know yet, systematically increasing the horizons of one’s current knowledge.
GESDA aims to act as an honest broker here: between the scientific community, diplomats, citizens, philanthropists and the private sector, encouraging open debates about how we wish to shape the future and what opportunities for action can be seized today. The principal tool for this is the GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar®: a detailed examination of the possibilities envisaged for the future across the natural, social and engineering sciences, as well as the humanities and philosophy.
To translate the principles of science anticipation into practice, it is necessary to consider anticipation as the capacity to treat the future as a range of possibilities. This makes it possible to make decisions in the present that can influence what happens in the future. To provide useful data for meaningful debate and discussion, GESDA practises science anticipation over a 25-year prospective timeframe. By directly engaging with leading researchers embedded within their respective fields, and through the appointment of specialist GESDA Anticipation Committees, we act to anticipate research trends over the next 5, 10 and 25 years. These anticipated trends are described in the Radar’s “Pulse of Science”.
In addition to the detailed descriptions of science trends, we also calculate an “Anticipation Potential” score for each topic area, mapped onto our Radar visualisation. Each topic’s Anticipation Potential reflects the opinion of an extended network of subject-specific global experts regarding: the uncertainty of future science breakthroughs in a research field over the next 25 years; the transformative nature of the breakthrough for science, technology, humanity, society and our planet; and the opportunity for multilateral action in the present to ensure that a breakthrough’s potential is realised. Consequently, a field with high Anticipation Potential combines the potential of highly transformative futures with clear opportunities for action in the present.
A detailed breakdown of this methodology can be found on the GESDA Radar online platform. But it is worth pointing out that the methodology’s roots go deeper than GESDA’s innovations in science anticipation.
The Greek word for “anticipate” is προλαμβάνω (prolambano), of which the original meaning is to “seize beforehand”. From its earliest use, therefore, anticipation has combined a forward-looking attitude with the potential for deliberate action, with consideration of possible futures used as a key factor in deciding which actions to take in the present. Through this ability to combine action and purposeful anticipation, we are freed to see aspects of our future as being malleable to creative forces and novelty — as long as suitable enabling conditions exist.
Hence GESDA’s real-world goal: to create, through informed and intelligent science anticipation, conditions that enable clear sight of our possible futures and create the best chance of seizing all the opportunities they present. I earnestly believe that the GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar® will prove an invaluable tool for this task.
