The GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar is continuously updated expanded through anticipatory events, workshops and consultations with the broader scientific community.

Ageing is a complex and time-dependent decline in physiological function that affects most organisms, making it the most common and biggest risk factor for chronic diseases. Therefore, understanding the various molecular, genetic, environmental, and societal aspects of ageing as a health challenge is crucial to develop new strategies that promote health resilience and extend healthy years of life by slowing down or even reversing biological ageing.
Sleep, the body’s natural mechanism for restoration and repair, has recently received increasing attention for harnessing health until old age. It is essential to all mammal species' survival and lack of sleep comes at the cost of a higher all mortality risk and shorter healthspan. Sleep is essential for restoring the homeostasis of multiple brain and body functions including DNA repair, memory formation and neuroplasticity, glymphatic clearance of the brain, metabolic and hormonal regulation, harnessing the gut’s microbiome and immune function, cardiovascular recovery, and facilitating emotional health and pro-social control. Based on expanding knowledge about sleep which ranges from (epi)genetic and cellular functions, and systemic effects on the brain and body, to cultural and societal factors, the field has now entered an era where radically new diagnostics and therapeutics are within reach for targeting sleep to extend healthspan.
To date, it is widely accepted that ageing and sleep interact. However, it has been less well discussed how exploring the interface between biological ageing and sleep can reveal new opportunities for harnessing healthy longevity from the cellular to the societal level. Anticipating future advances in our understanding of how biological ageing depends on maintaining homeostasis across multiple organ systems from the molecular to the systemic scale, and how sleep naturally contributes to these processes and can be modified by novel interventions, will reveal exciting new opportunities for diagnosing and augmenting health resilience and longevity while asleep. Given these possibilities, breakthroughs for new strategies for human healthspan extension will enable a new kind of holistic public health programme which encourages policy uptake through the generation of solid evidence and has the potential to significantly impact both the ageing individual and society.
Following an introductory session highlighting how we can think about the future of humanity and society, the deep dive workshop will focus on sleep as a strategy for healthspan extension during ageing in three interrelated themes:

****Decoding biological age
****Augmenting sleep for functional restoration
****Extending healthspan

The main guiding question for the conference remains the same: can we anticipate new scientific disruptions in these areas, and what are their implications for our future?

Workshop

Singapore Anticipation Conference: Augmenting Sleep to Slow Down Biological Ageing

Human Augmentation

Tan Eng ChyeChristian WolfrumManu Kapur + 34

The Villars Anticipation Workshops take place over three days at Victoria Hotel & Residence in Villars, Switzerland, and are hosted by Prof. Michael Hengartner, Chair of GESDA’s Academic Forum and President of the ETH Board. The workshop series provides:

A unique space of convergence for direct engagement with leading researchers across related but distinct scientific fields,
An innovative framework for anticipation to explore future cutting-edge research beyond one’s immediate expertise, and
A direct bridge to diplomacy for translating scientific insights into action.

Workshop

Villars Anticipation Workshop on Planetarised Humanity

Science & Diplomacy

Michael O. HengartnerRosi BraidottiAchille Mbembe + 27

Mathematics has a reputation for being an esoteric pursuit, but the truth is very different: the discipline is central to many aspects of human endeavour. In the 21st century, mathematical fields such as linear algebra, differential calculus and statistical analysis underpin a wide swathe of our activities, from online shopping to medical diagnosis. Future progress in science, greater societal stability, discoveries in medicine, and ecological protection and remediation will all depend on developments in a variety of mathematical disciplines. So how can mathematicians and legislators, diplomats, politicians, funding agencies and other policy makers best work together to ensure that these future breakthroughs can be achieved?

Workshop

GESDA Anticipation Workshop - Mathematics for Humanity

Knowledge Foundations

Sophie GilbertMinhyong KimNima Arkani-Hamad + 8

At this roundtable, GESDA and CIFAR will introduce our approaches and goals for science
anticipation / research foresight, and we invite all participating organisations to do so as well.
We also want to begin a conversation on the challenges that different organisations have
encountered in their work, major gaps that need to be addressed, and types of output or
collaborative activities that would be beneficial for the anticipation / foresight community. We
hope the discussion will seed potential next steps towards building up this community of
practice. Below is a draft agenda for the roundtable. We hope you will be able to join us.

Workshop

Roundtable for Science Anticipation and Research Foresight Organisations at GESDA Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit

Daniel BacinelloMartin MüllerSophie Gilbert

Bacterial and fungal pathogens are rapidly becoming resistant to existing interventions, in a phenomenon known as antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The WHO estimates that by 2050, 10 million people will die due to antibiotic resistance. As a result, AMR is gaining significant global attention, with discussions now reaching the highest diplomatic platforms, including the United Nations General Assembly. The President of the UN General Assembly organised a multistakeholder hearing on AMR on 15 May 2024, and a High-Level Meeting on AMR will be convened for the second time during UNGA’s 79th session in New York. This escalating concern may lead to a Presidential Declaration addressing AMR at the upcoming “Summit of the Future” in late September, reflecting the issue’s priority in global health and policy-making agendas.
But new drugs are hard to discover and develop with little financial incentives, as they are not competitive against cheap generics, such as current antibiotics on the market. It will be necessary to embrace entirely new ideas and new approaches to renew the pipeline.
The more alternatives to defeating antimicrobial resistance the better, to minimise the chance of pathogens evolving mechanisms to evade the treatment – that is, resistance.
Many of these strategies, however, rely on anticipated advances from the field of synthetic biology. Synthetic biology is a set of emerging technologies enabling the modification and
creation of living cells and organisms, and of their building blocks.
Considering that many medicines are either sourced directly from living organisms or based on chemicals produced in nature, synthetic biology’s promise to treat life as programmable matter will have vast implications for the control of AMR. Synthetic biology has the potential to find many new candidate drugs and to produce medicines in cellular factories. Notably, the first synthetic vaccines have been made and shown to be effective, and combined with the anticipated ability of artificial intelligence (AI) to be able predict the structure and function of any new biomolecule in the next 5 years, the power of synthetic biology techniques are only set to increase.
The GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar® anticipates breakthroughs in the field of synthetic biology at 5, 10 and 25 years with the potential to accelerate the release of new drugs to fight or neutralise AMR.
Examples include the use of bacteria-infecting viruses known as phages to treat bacterial infections and reduce resistance to antibiotics by removing physiological barriers – biofilms – which contribute to resistance. Research is also underway to develop microbiome strategies to cultivate gut flora to outcompete pathogenic strains. In addition to faecal transplants, more sophisticated RNA-based sculpting of the microbiome can selectively kill certain bacteria. Immunotherapy is also being investigated for deployment against bacterial and fungal infections, and we can even mine our ancient genomes for extinct mechanisms for combating disease.
This workshop aims to:

Explore the range of synthetic biology tools that experts anticipate will be made available over the next 5, 10 and 25 years.
Illuminate strategies for combating the urgent global threat of AMR using these tools.
Identify areas of targeted multistakeholder action to be made in the present to accelerate this potential.

Workshop

Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR): How can anticipating advances in synthetic biology help combat one of our greatest health and policy-making challenges?

Human Augmentation

Maricela MuñozSophie GilbertJoseph Heitman + 6

GESDA initiated first reflections on a new vision for eco-augmentation at the 2024 GESDA Villars
Anticipation Workshop, which acted to identify key opportunities for
research in this area. The workshop at the 2024 GESDA Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit
will bring together a small number of experts to formulate the full scope of a proposed ecoaugmentation
solution to create a shared vision for the initiative.
This workshop aims to:

Form a collective understanding of eco-augmentation as a global and transdisciplinary endeavour.
Identify and develop use cases for eco-augmentation.
Formulate a global vision for a solution to accelerate the knowledge and understanding required for eco-augmentation to benefit humans, society and the planet.

Workshop

Accelerating eco-augmentation for global good

Eco-Regeneration & Geoengineering

Sandro GiulianiSophie GilbertDavid S. Kong + 6

The GESDA approach to anticipating future developments in science relies on the predictions of scientists of developments and breakthroughs that will be impactful in 5, 10 and 25 years. However, while AI or Quantum computing scientists are determinant in shaping the future of AI and in Quantum Computing, political and social scientists are not usually determinant in shaping the future of politics or social trends. While the GESDA methodology has a high likelihood of accuracy for applied and natural sciences, there are many more uncertainties when it comes to anticipating geopolitical developments, their interaction with other relevant vectors and hence probable scenarios for the future of peace and war.
General introduction to the workshop
Many academics from a broad variety of fields have indicated we are at a pivot point in history. Three organizations – GESDA, GCSP and SIPA at Columbia - have joined forces to anticipate what this may mean for the future of peace and war.

While all participants of the inaugural workshop agreed that the future cannot be predicted, there was a broad consensus that one possible approach for anticipation uses scenarios to think about a range of possible futureS. There was also a convergence of views to begin with the portrayal of probable scenarios shaped by major vectors, trends and countertrends. It was stressed that scenarios with a narrative component and with roots in the present can help gain the attention of policy makers. One way of arriving at four scenarios discussed at the workshop is to use a two-axes framework that reflects a starting point to capture the main interacting vectors shaping the future of peace and war. This methodology is described in more detail in the attached note.
This workshop will road test the methodology, and include horizon scanning to identify key vectors and how they may interact with one another to enhance peace or further conflict. In this process we will populate the four quadrants which determine the four scenarios to be depicted. The workshop will consider not only dominant current trends but also relevant weak signals, or seemingly peripheral trends, counter trends, areas of uncertainty and potential ruptures, and their implications for peace and war. The project focuses in particular on how seemingly diverse trends and counter trends may interact to enhance or reduce the potential for conflict. The workshop will build on the knowledge gathered in the anticipatory work in science and technology developments reflected in the
GESDA Science Breakthrough Radar.
Desired outcomes

Agree for this project on what specific areas we want to focus on in the (almost endless) elements of the peace - war continuum.
Building on the methodology discussion in workshop one, agree on the two most useful axes to produce the framework with which we will begin to define the four probable, anticipated scenarios by the interactions of relevant vectors (see background note mentioned above).
Agree on what influences movement along each axis, where the uncertainties lay and what needs to be considered in more depth to come to a portrayal of four probable futures as an initial result of the project.
Begin population of each quadrant as a basis for full-fledged scenario construction.
Agreement on the next step for the project.

Meeting venue
The meeting will take place at The Rockefeller Brothers Fund
475 Riverside Drive, Suite 900
New York, NY 10115
(Enter at 61 Claremont Avenue)

Opportunity

Anticipating the Future of Peace and War

Knowledge Foundations

Enrico LettaJean-Marie GuéhennoThomas Greminger

Proceeding of the 2023 Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit
The third annual Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit took place on 11-13 October 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland, at the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known by its French acronym CERN. It brought together 800 participants from science, diplomacy, the private sector, philanthropy and civil society to accelerate discussion and action on the implications on anticipated science breakthroughs.
Discover more about the GESDA Summit.

Opportunity

Investing in Emerging Science

Science & Diplomacy

William EgbeMeret GauglerJulia Angeles

Proceeding of the 2023 Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit
The third annual Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit took place on 11-13 October 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland, at the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known by its French acronym CERN. It brought together 800 participants from science, diplomacy, the private sector, philanthropy and civil society to accelerate discussion and action on the implications on anticipated science breakthroughs.
Discover more about the GESDA Summit.

Opportunity

From the Atomic Bomb to AI: Lessons from Oppenheimer

Science & Diplomacy

Patrick AebischerAdrian MonckPaolo Benanti

Proceeding of the 2023 Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit
The third annual Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit took place on 11-13 October 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland, at the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known by its French acronym CERN. It brought together 800 participants from science, diplomacy, the private sector, philanthropy and civil society to accelerate discussion and action on the implications on anticipated science breakthroughs.
Discover more about the GESDA Summit.

Opportunity

Science Diplomacy at Scale

Science & Diplomacy

Martin ChungongAnnika BrackStéphanie Balme + 4

Proceeding of the 2023 Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit
The third annual Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit took place on 11-13 October 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland, at the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known by its French acronym CERN. It brought together 800 participants from science, diplomacy, the private sector, philanthropy and civil society to accelerate discussion and action on the implications on anticipated science breakthroughs.
Discover more about the GESDA Summit.

Opportunity

Keeping Check on Earth’s Vital Signs

Eco-Regeneration & Geoengineering

Anousheh AnsariJohan RockströmLars Peter Riishojgaard

Proceeding of the 2023 Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit
The third annual Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit took place on 11-13 October 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland, at the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known by its French acronym CERN. It brought together 800 participants from science, diplomacy, the private sector, philanthropy and civil society to accelerate discussion and action on the implications on anticipated science breakthroughs.
Discover more about the GESDA Summit.

Opportunity

Tackling Tomorrow’s Health Challenges Today

Human Augmentation

Chorh Chuan TanTolullah OniMariam Ezz El-Arab

Proceeding of the 2023 Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit
The third annual Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit took place on 11-13 October 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland, at the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known by its French acronym CERN. It brought together 800 participants from science, diplomacy, the private sector, philanthropy and civil society to accelerate discussion and action on the implications on anticipated science breakthroughs.
Discover more about the GESDA Summit.

Opportunity

Neuro-Augmentation: Hype or Hope?

Human Augmentation

Karen RommelfangerMu-ming PooMarcello Ienca

Proceeding of the 2023 Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit
The third annual Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit took place on 11-13 October 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland, at the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known by its French acronym CERN. It brought together 800 participants from science, diplomacy, the private sector, philanthropy and civil society to accelerate discussion and action on the implications on anticipated science breakthroughs.
Discover more about the GESDA Summit.

Opportunity

Quantum Solutions for All: High-Level Political Segment

Quantum Revolution & Advanced AI

Alexandre FaselFederal Councillor Ignazio CassisTatiana Valovaya + 7

Proceeding of the 2023 Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit
The third annual Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipation Summit took place on 11-13 October 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland, at the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known by its French acronym CERN. It brought together 800 participants from science, diplomacy, the private sector, philanthropy and civil society to accelerate discussion and action on the implications on anticipated science breakthroughs.
Discover more about the GESDA Summit.

Opportunity

Quantum Solutions for All: The Incubation of the Open Quantum Institute

Quantum Revolution & Advanced AI

Peter Brabeck-LetmatheFederal Councillor Ignazio CassisBarry Sanders + 8

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