5.3. Future Economics, Trade and Globalisation
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5.3. Future Economics, Trade and Globalisation
Use the future to build the present
Future Economics, Trade and Globalisation
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Emerging Topic:

5.3Future Economics, Trade and Globalisation

    Associated Sub-Fields

    It is apparent from the challenges facing humanity in the 21st century that externalities need to be better incorporated into the economic decisions of firms, households, and governments. Global warming continues to heat the planet with atmospheric temperatures likely to soon break the 1.5˚C of warming threshold that climate agreements had pledged to avoid. Media coverage of this imminent milestone is focusing attention on what more can be done. For this reason, all actors should be more alert to the negative consequences that their decisions have for the wellbeing of others — near or far — as well as for future generations, and for the planet. The market cannot be relied upon to drive positive change towards sustainability, inclusiveness, and resilience. Therefore, more government intervention is needed. Societies need to agree on the negative externalities created (for example by too much automation, by excessive emissions and pollution) quantify them, and shape economic choices through direct subsidies and incentives.

    Research into these issues is already uncovering many policy solutions that could lead to resilient, inclusive, sustainable societies. There is the circular economy, for instance, where the full life cycle cost of goods and materials is factored into prices, and where the by-products and waste from one process become the feedstocks for others.1 Sustainable economic policies must also deal with the externalities of climate change, which lead to forced migration, with all kinds of consequences on the societies at the origin and the destination, and agriculture through altered environmental conditions. Our societies also have to solve issues of globalisation, and of automation and employment before they cause significant economic changes that can lead to social unrest. Many of the required economic models and measures have been invented, but are yet to be implemented.

    SELECTION OF GESDA BEST READS AND KEY REPORTS:

    In January 2023, two researchers from Pennsylvania State University delved into the potential of major oil conglomerates in leading the charge against climate externalities. How Big Oil Can Internalize Climate Change Externalities suggested an industry-centric approach for escalating green investments, emphasising their vital role in offsetting climate impacts. In July, Australian and US researchers published Advancing a slum–circular economy model for sustainability transition in cities of the Global South, offering a fresh perspective on the circular economy's role within Global South's slums, and advocating for the reconceptualisation of slums as springboards for urban sustainability. On the technological front, a collaboration between UK and Nigerian researchers published Human-Robot Co-working Improvement via Revolutionary Automation and Robotic Technologies – An overview. This charts the new horizons of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, spotlighting cutting-edge automation technologies tailored to enhance and streamline human-robot synergy.

    Emerging Topic:

    Anticipation Potential

    Future Economics, Trade and Globalisation

    Sub-Fields:

    Managing Climate Externalities
    Automation and Work
    Bootstrapping Circular Economies
    Sustainable Global Trade
    Faced with a worsening climate challenge and dramatic changes in the workplace, efforts to make our economies more sustainable and resilient are already well underway. The potential impact on both the planet and society were judged to be among the highest of any assessed by the expert panel. While awareness of these issues is relatively high already, their potentially transformational effects on society and the time it will take for breakthroughs --- between 10 and 20 years according to our experts --- suggest it would be unwise to disregard them.

    GESDA Best Reads and Key Resources