4.4.1. Verification technologies
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4.4.1. Verification technologies
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Verification technologies
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

4.4.1Verification technologies

    The difference between information from trusted sources and malicious actors is becoming increasingly difficult to spot. This is due, in large part, to a range of technologies that can fashion realistic faces,9 images and videos.

    Such technologies enable the rapid and deliberate spread of misinformation via social media platforms, often before it can be clearly labelled as fake.

    This raises a wide range of challenges for society. At one level is the arms race to develop technology that can spot synthetic content, such as deepfakes: this is likely to be constantly challenged by better techniques for making them.

    Blockchain technologies can help here, reliably certifying the source and provenance of information. This is increasingly used in areas like healthcare and emerging digital democracies such as those in Estonia. Healthcare tech is likely to lead the way in this area because the new health services that digitisation provides are much needed in most societies.

    However, blockchains come with certain risks. They are vulnerable to certain kinds of attack and their security is not always clearly verifiable. Some blockchain instances require institutions to give up control of their data --- a requirement that may prove too much for certain organisations. For example, many governments are reluctant to embrace blockchain-based cryptocurrencies for fear of losing control of monetary policy.

    At the same time, the war in Ukraine is forcing governments to consider controlling cryptocurrencies to prevent them being used to circumvent sanctions.10

    Biometric technologies for identifying individuals provide an alternative means of digital verification, and in many cases have reached sufficient maturity to be useful in this area. Because of this identity verification has evolved significantly from passwords and Captchas to include face, iris and fingerprint recognition and even biochemical techniques such as DNA analysis. Many of these techniques are widespread and relatively secure. However, they will be increasingly under attack from malicious actors as a way to gain illicit access to confidential records and to financial, health and security-related systems.

    Future Horizons:

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    5-yearhorizon

    Digital trust remains elusive

    Blockchain is increasingly incorporated into institutional structures to certify provenance of information and to monitor and control access. However, high profile attacks and vulnerabilities in nation-state digital identity systems continue to undermine trust in these systems. Biometric data is increasingly secured with post-quantum cryptographic techniques to protect it against sophisticated attacks from quantum computers.

    10-yearhorizon

    Secure systems flourish

    Open digital economies and well-secured digital healthcare systems evolve into fully fledged digital worlds in both democratic and autocratic societies. Data leakage from improperly secured digital identity systems undermines public confidence in biometric security in some parts of the world. Knock-on effects include a drop in international visitors to these countries for fear that tourists' biometric data will leak. Concerns over data security, data privacy and digital human rights becomes a key battleground for campaigners.

    25-yearhorizon

    Cryptocurrencies become mainstream

    Carbon neutral blockchain technologies allow cryptocurrencies to gain broad support and state backing in some parts of the world. The ability of AI systems to mimic real humans, down to the level of biometric detail, raises important questions about the nature of digital identity and how it can be verified in future.

    Verification technologies - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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