4.4.2. Digital identity and trust
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4.4.2. Digital identity and trust
Use the future to build the present
Digital identity and trust
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1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology
1.1Advanced AI1.2QuantumRevolution1.3UnconventionalComputing1.4AugmentedReality1.5CollectiveIntelligence2.1CognitiveEnhancement2.2HumanApplicationsof GeneticEngineering2.3HealthspanExtension2.4ConsciousnessAugmentation2.5Organoids2.6FutureTherapeutics3.1Decarbonisation3.2EarthSystemsModelling3.3FutureFoodSystems3.4SpaceResources3.5OceanStewardship3.6SolarRadiationModification3.7InfectiousDiseases4.1Science-basedDiplomacy4.2Advancesin ScienceDiplomacy4.3Foresight,Prediction,and FuturesLiteracy4.4Democracy-affirmingTechnologies5.1ComplexSystemsScience5.2Futureof Education5.3Future Economics,Trade andGlobalisation5.4The Scienceof theOrigins of Life5.5SyntheticBiology

Sub-Field:

4.4.2Digital identity and trust

    As people's lives move increasingly online, they become more concerned with the nature of their digital identities. Among the central issues are security and privacy: digital identities need to be safe and secured.

    This has been a huge success in Estonia, where the country's digital identity system is secured by blockchain and widely trusted by the public. It is used to record citizens' daily transactions, to make tax payments and even to vote.

    Other systems have been more controversial, however. India's Aadhaar digital identity system has over 1.3 billion users, a number that has helped to kickstart the country's digital economy. But it has also been engulfed in controversy, with lawyers, academics and civil rights activists claiming that Aadhaar allows massive state-level surveillance and that security is inadequate, allowing data breaches and even fraud.11

    At the heart of all these challenges lies the issue of trust. This is inevitably eroded when controversies erupt. It is already clear that the nature of trust is highly nuanced and that people will rely on a particular technology in one set of circumstances but not another.12 For example, research into the use of QR codes to convey vaccine status has shown that people are willing to trust this technology in relatively anonymous situations, such as when travelling, but are much less likely to trust it at work, where it can reveal their health status to colleagues.

    At the same time, trust in institutions --- including democracy --- has declined in recent years. It is not at all clear whether technology will reverse this trend or accelerate it, but there is certainly a risk of a conscious or unconscious drift towards unchecked use of widespread surveillance.

    Digital identity is likely to further evolve in the “metaverse”, where online versions of ourselves and objects around us will become increasingly active. “Digital twins” are already being used in activities such as product development, purchasing decisions, voting, health studies and so on.13 It is likely that they will be augmented by artificial intelligence that can offer better-than-human capabilities, making establishing and verifying the identities of these “centaurs” a vital concern.

    Future Horizons:

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    5-yearhorizon

    Digital identity issues come to the fore

    The demands for transparency and accountability on digital identity platforms ensure that the issue of digital identity becomes a central issue in many countries.

    10-yearhorizon

    Access to blockchain divides regions

    Where secured by blockchain technologies, digital identities begin to strengthen many democratic institutions, pushing public trust to an all-time high. However, many regions rely on less secure technology which undermines public trust and enables autocratic regimes to flourish.

    25-yearhorizon

    Identity thieves target AI-enhanced humans

    Humans augmented with AI capabilities become a powerful sector of society, leading to a growth in attempts to steal or clone their identities.

    Digital identity and trust - Anticipation Scores

    How the experts see this field in terms of the expected time to maturity, transformational effect across science and industries, current state of awareness among stakeholders and its possible impact on people, society and the planet. See methodology for more information.

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