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Why do those assignments sometime change so abruptly and brutally? How do people go, in only a few years, from marrying one another and raising each other’s children to supporting or even participating, in genocide?\n\nOne important challenge is that most intergroup researchers study what might be best characterised as group geometry — whether people lie within or outside a social category, what shape the resulting networks take, and so on. More specifically, the contemporary intergroup literature emphasises static category-memberships, usually in conflict dyads — for instance, black vs. white people — although many conflicts obviously involve more than two groups.\n\nThis approach is limited because it is inflexible: social categories are not fixed, monolithic entities. Associations with specific categories change over time: Italians in the U.S. were considered ethnic outsiders for decades before becoming racialised as white in the early 20<sup>th</sup> century. Allegiances between categories can change: Americans and Japanese today enjoy cordial relations, whereas 80 years ago they were mortal enemies. Group boundaries contract and expand over time and contexts, and are constantly being redrawn and negotiated by those within and outside those groups. Not all categories are psychologically potent or purposive: societies have never been worried about an uprising by brunettes. \n\nFinally, a static framework cannot explain how people transition from being cooperative neighbours to enemy combatants. Moreover, there are leaders and central actors who foment, carry out, and perpetuate conflict. Many experts have weighed in on what conditions allow those actors to succeed but it is also crucial to consider the social contexts in which those conflicts unfold. What about everybody else? Who supports the conflict? Who protests? Who stands by?\n\nStudy and management of conflict in international relations and the social sciences generally focuses on out-group threats — economic challenges, clashes of values, political differences, resource conflicts or pathogenic risks. But those threats often exist without any concomitant conflict taking place, which suggests that while some form of threat is necessary for conflict to arise, it is not sufficient in itself. Dislike or prejudice against an outgroup does not mean that there will be widespread support for harming them.\n\nThis is why I study the *physics* of groups: the psychologically meaningful forces that regulate the formation, organisation and dissolution of purposive groups. My work proceeds on the assumption that groups are best understood as distributions of members who will continually reorganise themselves under the influence of forces which bind them together and rend them apart. This *coalition*-based framework accounts for groups’ dynamic nature: the very same people who may stand by in one context can be activated to violence in another, so long as certain conditions are met. \n\nThe ways in which coalitions form and re-form, and the conditions under which threat turns to conflict and then to violence, are changing under the influence of information technology. We are not dispassionate processors of information. Just as prisms bend light, so too do our minds distort information, making some information more likely to be noticed, remembered or shared. \n\nFor example, individuals have the tendency to attend to, learn from, and weigh negative news more heavily than positive or neutral news. This negativity bias may be further compounded by factors such as the availability heuristic, which leads people to consider events to be more likely and credible if they can readily recall similar incidents. This is why threatening propaganda can be very effective in generating hatred against particular groups or organisations.\n\nSo even if there was no dis- or mis-information being broadcast to the public, we still wouldn’t have a veridical picture of the world in our heads. This matters, because false beliefs inform behaviour. For example, inaccurate, pessimistic beliefs about the other side’s feelings are associated with decreased trust, and negative expectations about mutual interactions. The farther I *think* you are from me, the less I trust you or want to talk to you. Perceived polarisation leads to actual* polarisation.\n\nIn addition to first-order perceptions, my colleagues and I study meta-perceptions. A perception is what I believe about you. A meta-perception is what I believe that *you* believe about *me*. We think these are important because they guide whether or not we believe we can live or work together. Democratic governments inevitably require coordination amongst people who disagree; that coordination is what brings citizens services, infrastructure, and security. But if my meta-perceptions are overly negative — I believe you’re appalled by me and outraged by everything I do — that forecloses on the possibility that we can get anything done. It would be a waste of time to try. \n\nThat situation would seem to summarise the current situation in American politics, so we put it to the test.[1](/citation/political-sectarianism-in-america/) We found that Democrats and Republicans alike disapproved of hypothetical actions the opposing party might take, such as naming a highway after a controversial figure, or gerrymandering an electoral district in their favour. They weren’t generally enraged—but they did think other members of their own party would be. And they thought that if the situation was flipped, so that their own party was the “offender”, members of the opposing party would be *hugely* offended. The more strongly they felt this, the more strongly they believed their opponents to be obstructionists themselves.\n\nThis is not just the case in the domain of politics. For example, my colleagues have found that Americans who learn that Arabs or Muslims blatantly dehumanise Americans are not only more likely to dehumanise Arabs and Muslims in return, they’re more likely to say they support torture and drone strikes. This finding replicates with Hungarians’ beliefs about Roma people, and Israelis beliefs about Palestinians. In other words, across contexts and cultures, overly negative meta-perceptions make people believe the worst of the other side and encourage support for hostile actions against them.\n\nThis might sound dispiriting, but there is a silver lining, because combatting misperceptions is easier than trying to change people’s actual positions or prejudices. People are obviously very concerned with their own image in others’ eyes: we all want to be liked and respected. So if we learn that the other side isn’t as hateful towards us as we originally thought, that can cut through in a way that attempts to improve our view of *them* simply won’t. When we told our political survey participants that their opponents were much less easily offended than they had assumed, they became less likely to assume those opponents were driven by spiteful obstructionism — and the more pessimistic they originally were, the bigger the effect of the intervention. These results replicate across cultures and group contexts. As part of a team of over 80 researchers we have replicated both our effect and our intervention with more than 10,000 participants spread over 26 countries.\n\nNote also that meta-perceptions can also be more specific; they can be about what we expect the other groups to do, not just how they feel. For example, my colleagues at Stanford asked people in the U.S. how likely they thought the other political party would be to engage in partisan violence. Then half of those people received a correction (based on real data) indicating that only a very small percentage of the other side would actually support or engage in violence on behalf of their party. Those who received the correction were significantly less likely to support others’ violence or say that they themselves would engage in violence.\n\nOf course, political, social, and religious factions are doing the opposite: promoting errors in meta-perception. The message is: they hate you so it’s okay to hate them back. And almost any behaviour is morally acceptable if it’s done in self-defence. These group leaders are building coalitions against their opponents, talking their members into conflict and violence.\n\nLooking forward, I think that individuals, institutions, and governments have a deep responsibility (and challenge) to communicate accurately just how close we are in our values and desires. People now haveaccess to unprecedented volumes of information, but they need to see how much distributions of attitudes and issue positions overlap. They are often only told\nhow far apart the mean positions are — not that this is only because of a few people in “the tails.” Support for climate change is a perfect example of why this matters. In one series of surveys, 80-90 per cent of Americans underestimate the prevalence of support for major climate change mitigation policies. They live in a false social reality: they think only a minority of citizens support climate action whereas the true numbers range from 66 to 80 per cent. The provision of reliable information from trustworthy sources to a data literate public is paramount for large scale collective coordination. "},"titleRich":{"id":"65c55d169e947c438698b002_titleRich","text":""},"subtitleRich":{"id":"65c55d169e947c438698b002_subtitleRich","text":""},"openGraph":{"title":"Misperceptions, Meta-perceptions and Conflict","description":{"plain":"The evidence is overwhelming that humans are by default co-operative, moral and deeply averse to harming others. Our very co-existence in cities with millions of residents, on a planet with billions of inhabitants, testifies to that. And yet, by some counts, over 200 million civilians have been killed in acts of genocide, war, and other forms of collective conflict over the last century alone. \n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1696727421/gesda-23/banner/banner-ic-4-1-metaconflict_thumbnail__Banner_-_IC4-1_Metaconflict-thumb_nzgdyg.webp","url2x":null,"thumbnails":{"large":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,h_512/v1696727421/gesda-23/banner/banner-ic-4-1-metaconflict_thumbnail__Banner_-_IC4-1_Metaconflict-thumb_nzgdyg.webp","url2x":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,h_1024/v1696727421/gesda-23/banner/banner-ic-4-1-metaconflict_thumbnail__Banner_-_IC4-1_Metaconflict-thumb_nzgdyg.webp"}}}},"parent":{"id":"6a9362ba34307dba8bf55024","name":"Publications","path":"/publications"},"typeLabel":"Invited Contribution","type":{"name":"Invited Contribution","slug":"invited-contribution"},"types":[{"name":"Invited Contribution","slug":"invited-contribution"}],"intro":{"text":"The evidence is overwhelming that humans are by default co-operative, moral and deeply averse to harming others. Our very co-existence in cities with millions of residents, on a planet with billions of inhabitants, testifies to that. And yet, by some counts, over 200 million civilians have been killed in acts of genocide, war, and other forms of collective conflict over the last century alone. 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Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"Humankind is facing global challenges that are placing people and the planet under stress and in great uncertainty.\n\nAt the same time, breakthroughs in science and technology are occurring at an unprecedented pace – but the full ramifications of these breakthroughs are not always evident.\n\nAnticipation, therefore, is key to building the future by fully leveraging the potential of new science and technology advances to improve well-being and promote inclusive development.\n\nThe Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA) Foundation was created in 2019 in Geneva to tackle this issue, as a think tank and do tank."},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760413449/gesda-platform/site/gesda-radar-website_thumbnail__Screenshot_2025-10-14_at_11.42.59_o2cgxm.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"GESDA","date":"2026-09-16T00:16:49.08","description":{"plain":"Humankind is facing global challenges that are placing people and the planet under stress and in great uncertainty.\nAt the same time, breakthroughs in science and technology are occurring at an unprecedented pace – but the full ramifications of these breakthroughs are not always evident.\nAnticipation, therefore, is key to building the future by fully leveraging the potential of new science and technology advances to improve well-being and promote inclusive development.\nThe Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA) Foundation was created in 2019 in Geneva to tackle this issue, as a think tank and do tank.\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760413449/gesda-platform/site/gesda-radar-website_thumbnail__Screenshot_2025-10-14_at_11.42.59_o2cgxm.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760413449/gesda-platform/site/gesda-radar-website_thumbnail__Screenshot_2025-10-14_at_11.42.59_o2cgxm.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At the Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (hereafter referred to as ‘GESDA’), we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. GESDA is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of GESDA, contractors and partners doing business on behalf of GESDA, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by GESDA.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nGESDA collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in GESDA events and activities - Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nGESDA uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. GESDA may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. GESDA may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate GESDA supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. GESDA may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. GESDA may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in GESDA activities. GESDA will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain GESDA activities such as the GESDA Summit, authoring or reviewing a GESDA article, or GESDA humanitarian activities. GESDA may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant GESDA events and opportunities. GESDA may communicate with you regarding relevant GESDA events and opportunities.\n  * To protect GESDA content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for the GESDA Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to summit@global.gesda specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nGESDA does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nGESDA may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nGESDA automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, GESDA may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting GESDA's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on GESDA's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. GESDA uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nGESDA also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on GESDA's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. GESDA provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving the GESDA domain, and GESDA's information management policies no longer apply. GESDA encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. GESDA uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to GESDA, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all GESDA web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on the GESDA website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nGESDA reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nGESDA complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. Should you wish to exercise any of these rights, please send an email request to info@gesda.global with \"Data Privacy Request'' in the subject line and in the email please identify the specific privacy right you request assistance with. Please note additional information may be requested prior to fulfilling a request and that GESDA reserves the right to charge a fee, where permitted, to cover the cost of certain requests.\n\n#### How do I contact you if there is an issue?\nIf you have any questions or concerns about this Privacy Policy or about the use of your personal information, please feel free to contact us by email at info@gesda.global\n\n#### Contact Information\nGeneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA) c/o Fondation Campus Biotech\nChemin des Mines 9\n1202 Geneva\n+41 58 201 02 61\ninfo@gesda.global\n"},"welcomeUrl":"https://radar.gesda.global/app/welcome","welcomeTitle":"Welcome to GESDA and thanks for joining us! 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