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Yet specialist applications promise to bring solutions, not just to address the root causes of conflict, but to transform governance. \n\nAI systems will act both as force multipliers in conflict and war and yet form part of a set of methods and tools that will revolutionise early warning and, in turn, create the system conditions and pathways to peace. \n\nWe believe that novel ways of thinking about possible futures — together with a new generation of knowledge engineering and AI-based simulation methodologies — have the potential to bridge gaps in understanding that are both systemic and strategic, spanning governance and diplomacy.\n\nIndeed, AI-based predictive models and early warning on emerging core-infrastructure crises have the potential to transform the way we govern at national and international levels. \n\nThe more ambitious target is to frame governance and policy as system-level interventions set in long-term, scenario-based strategic frameworks. In our view, policy navigational models should focus on early anticipation and prevention of events, ultimately in real time — beyond the conventional, static scenario models and linear forecasts that have constrained governance for decades. \n\nOnly by simulating emerging events, possible shocks, surprises and “unknown unknowns” can leadership teams develop shared understanding and recognise the risks of future inter-systemic crises long before they begin to develop momentum.\n\nThe grand challenge is to reinvent governance to match the demands of a potentially chaotic world dominated by the cascading impacts of poorly understood, fast-moving events that threaten fragmentation and breakdowns in trust. Nowhere is the challenge as acute or urgent as in the deeply interconnected worlds of AI, peace and war. \n\n\n\nThere are many theories of how peace turns to conflict and war and how war ends and brings peace. Historians often talk about failures of understanding and failures of imagination. In his book *The Earth Transformed* (Bloomsbury, 2023), Peter Frankopan makes the case that “Much of human history has been about the failure to understand or adapt to changing circumstances in the physical and natural world around us.”\n\nThe expression “failure of imagination” dominates the narrative in reviews of catastrophic events over the last few decades, surrounding everything from 9/11 to Hurricane Katrina and the 2007-8 financial crisis. \n\nIn *The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914* (Penguin, 2013), Christopher Clark examines leadership behaviour in the lead-up to World War One and concludes that the protagonists were “sleepwalking”: \n\n“They were not sleepwalking unconsciously, but all constantly scheming and calculating, plotting virtual futures and measuring them against each other… I was struck by the narrowness of their vision.”\n\nThe paradox is that humanity’s defining talent at the individual level is that consciousness is characterised by constant simulations of possible futures, as the latest models of neuroscience tell us. \n\nIn this context, imagined futures are cultural realities — mental simulations that shape decisions in the here and now. They are also contested and so a defining feature of uncertainty, driving everything from rivalry over “industries of the future” and risks of misjudgment and misunderstanding in crises, to competing visions about the future of AI.\n\nThese perspectives have growing relevance. Never before have world leaders faced multiple highly interconnected, fast-moving and accelerating threats. As interconnections in a system increase, so do complexity and uncertainty. Creating a shared social sense of reality — critical to political authority, trust and social stability — becomes increasingly difficult. Growing uncertainty feeds public feelings of disorder and threatens traditional leadership norms and institutional authority.\n\nWith the acceleration of AI, digital technologies, robotics and open media, the number of interconnections between people, places and things will continue to grow exponentially. \n\nThis brings us to some of the critical system-level variables and uncertainties, each with multiple outcomes that will shape the landscape of AI, peace and war over the next decade. To take a simple example, action on climate change may turn out to be “too little, too late”. Alternatively, exponential, system-level innovation in green technologies may create drastic cuts in emissions and herald the emergence of a secure, sustainable world. \n\nLooking ahead, geostrategic disorder and chaos may become the new norm, with pervasive conflicts in cyberspace and over supply chains and natural resources. Integrated AI, quantum, neurocomputing and cyberwar technologies may become the defining source of tension and driver of conflict between major powers. \n\nThe pivotal uncertainty is the extent to which complexity, uncertainty and speed will overwhelm global leaders and governance institutions at national and international levels. In the absence of a widely shared sense of vision and purpose, a world of unintended consequences may perpetuate tensions between political, public, humanitarian and security interests and well-financed technology companies. Relationships between state and non-state actors may remain locked in conflicts over power and money.\n\nAs the digitisation of core infrastructure systems gathers pace, the unresolved threats to security and social stability may grow. Core infrastructures may become part of the volatile and widening digital “theatre of conflict” that extends from media and communications networks to command and control, all enveloped in a web of semi-autonomous AI systems that threaten to create their own realities, transcend boundaries and elude security and governance systems. \n\nThis is important because distinctions between machine intelligence and human intelligence are easily blurred. Machines can deliver human-like output but cannot be explained in human terms, even by their designers. We are vulnerable to treating AIs as if they were human, with human ethics, emotions,  motives and intentions.\n\nAnother critical uncertainty is the extent to which AI will amplify the risks of misinterpretation, miscalculation and misjudgement, particularly in the world of military decision-making, peacekeeping and intelligence. At multiple levels, current AIs are opaque. Accuracy, novelty and “edge cases” are problematic. Transparency, explainability, provenance, authenticity and trust in mass-market AI products and services are elusive. They may remain so. \n\nAlternatively, or in parallel, specialist high-trust AI systems and data networks may dominate “mission-critical” areas such as finance, insurance, infrastructure, aviation, shipping, health and security communications. Internationally agreed “guard rails” may embody rules about AI, cross-border cyberwar and disinformation. Much depends on the intentions of major technology companies that may, over time, focus on sustainable development.\n\nMight we see the development of distributed digital worlds, regulated within global norms but controlled at state level, with “sovereign” data and AI systems managed within boundaries? \n\nThere are thousands of possible scenarios that may emerge over the next decade. In the scenarios we explore in the full web version of this essay, we draw on our library of simulation models that map multiple “high impact” variables, each with potentially extreme outcomes that will develop and interact in novel and often surprising ways over time. We illustrate just three: Dark Ages, Walled Gardens and Renaissance. These are deliberately extreme possible outcomes designed to inspire dialogue about what sort of world we want. \n\nAny viable organisation must be able to cope with the dynamic complexity and uncertainty of its future environment. The same applies to states, cities, corporations and humanitarian agencies most concerned with creating the system conditions for peace. \n\nThe starting point is a shared understanding of possible futures. We define resilience as adaptive policies that work in even the most extreme possible scenarios. In practice, “adaptive” does not mean rapid responses to events but collective action on simulations and foresight in anticipation of crises. The alternatives lead inevitably to “too little, too late”. \n\nAs the scenarios illustrate, humanity has many choices between multiple alternative futures. \n\nRenaissance describes one of many possible pathways to a more sustainable world. 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Policy","title":null,"slug":"privacy-policy","path":"/privacy-policy"},"summary":{"text":"Humankind is facing global challenges that are placing people and the planet under stress and in great uncertainty.\n\nAt the same time, breakthroughs in science and technology are occurring at an unprecedented pace – but the full ramifications of these breakthroughs are not always evident.\n\nAnticipation, therefore, is key to building the future by fully leveraging the potential of new science and technology advances to improve well-being and promote inclusive development.\n\nThe Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA) Foundation was created in 2019 in Geneva to tackle this issue, as a think tank and do tank."},"thumbnail":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760413449/gesda-platform/site/gesda-radar-website_thumbnail__Screenshot_2025-10-14_at_11.42.59_o2cgxm.png"},"openGraph":{"title":"GESDA","date":"2026-09-16T00:16:49.08","description":{"plain":"Humankind is 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tank.\n"},"image":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760413449/gesda-platform/site/gesda-radar-website_thumbnail__Screenshot_2025-10-14_at_11.42.59_o2cgxm.png","type":"image/png","thumbnails":{"full":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760413449/gesda-platform/site/gesda-radar-website_thumbnail__Screenshot_2025-10-14_at_11.42.59_o2cgxm.png"}}}},"termsAndConditions":{"text":""},"privacyPolicy":{"text":"At the Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (hereafter referred to as ‘GESDA’), we respect your privacy. We want to ensure that you get the information, content, and experiences that matter most to you. GESDA is committed to protecting the privacy of its stakeholders, communities, and other contacts.\n\n## Scope\n\nThis privacy policy applies to all personal data processed by full-time and part-time employees, volunteers when acting on behalf of GESDA, contractors and partners doing business on behalf of GESDA, as well as all legal entities, all operating locations in all countries, and all business processes conducted by GESDA.\n\n## Information Collected\n\n#### What information do we collect?\n\nGESDA collects the following personal data in line with the use purposes explained in a subsequent section:\n\n  * Your name and contact details\n  * Online profile data/usage\n  * Contact information\n  * Social media profile information\n  * Education and professional information\n  * Registration and participation in GESDA events and activities - Information about service usage\n  * Cookies\n  * Authentication data\n  * Location information\n  * Author and peer review information\n  * Other information you upload or provide to us\n\n#### How do we use your information?\n\nGESDA uses (and, where specified, shares) your personal information for the following purposes:\n\n  * To provide support or other services. GESDA may use your personal information to provide you with support or other services that you have ordered or requested. GESDA may also use your personal information to respond directly to your requests for information, including registrations for webinars, or other specific requests, or pass your contact information to the appropriate GESDA supplier or reseller for further follow-up related to your interests.\n  * To provide information based on your needs and respond to your requests. GESDA may use your personal information to provide you with notices of new product releases and service developments.\n  * To administer products. GESDA may contact you if you make use of (digital) products we offer, to confirm certain information (for example, that you did not experience problems in a download process). We may also use this information to confirm compliance with licensing and other terms of use and may share it with your company/institution.\n  * To assist in your participation in GESDA activities. GESDA will communicate with you, if you are participating in certain GESDA activities such as the GESDA Summit, authoring or reviewing a GESDA article, or GESDA humanitarian activities. GESDA may send you information such as update messages related to those activities (such as but not limited to the event's content, and event logistics)\n  * To update you on relevant GESDA events and opportunities. GESDA may communicate with you regarding relevant GESDA events and opportunities.\n  * To protect GESDA content and services. We may use your information to prevent potentially illegal activities and to enforce our terms and conditions.\n  * To get feedback or input from you. In order to deliver products and services of most interest to our stakeholders, from time to time, we may ask you to provide us input and feedback (for example through surveys).\n\n#### How can you control your information?\n\nYou can control the information we have about you and how we use as follows:\n\n  * If you are a registered guest for the GESDA Annual Summit 2021, any request for review, revise or correction of your personal data can be sent to summit@global.gesda specifying your request.\n\n#### Personal data about minors and children\n\nGESDA does not knowingly collect data from or about children under 16 without the permission of parent(s)/guardian(s). If we learn that we have collected personal information from a child under 16, we will delete that information as quickly as possible. If you believe that we might have any information from or about a child under age 16, please contact us.\n\n#### How will you know if the Privacy Policy is changed?\n\nGESDA may update its Privacy Policy from time to time. If we make any material changes you will be notified by means of a notice on our website prior on the date the change becomes effective. We encourage you to periodically review this page for the latest information on our privacy practices.\n\n## Technical And Regulatory Information\n\n#### Logging practices\n\nGESDA automatically records the Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of visitors. The IP address is a unique number assigned to every computer on the internet. Generally, an IP address changes each time you connect to the internet (it is a \"dynamic\" address). Note, however, that if you have a broadband connection, depending on your individual circumstance, the IP address that we collect may contain information that could be deemed identifiable. This is because, with some broadband connections, your IP address doesn't change (it is \"static\") and could be associated with your personal computer.\n\nAs well as recording the IP addresses of users, GESDA may also keep track of sites that users visited immediately prior to visiting GESDA's website and the search terms they used to find it. We keep track of the pages visited on GESDA's website, the amount of time spent on those pages and the types of searches done on them. Your searches remain confidential and anonymous. GESDA uses this information only for statistical purposes to find out which pages users find most useful and to improve the website.\nGESDA also captures and stores information that you transmit. This may include:\n\n  * Browser/Device type/version\n  * Operating system used\n  * Media Access Control (MAC) address\n  * Date and time of the server request\n  * Volume of data transferred\n\n#### External links behaviour\n\nSome of the links on GESDA's websites link to other sites created and maintained by other public- and/or private-sector organizations. GESDA provides these links solely for your information and convenience. When you transfer to an outside website, you are leaving the GESDA domain, and GESDA's information management policies no longer apply. GESDA encourages you to read the privacy statement of each external website that you visit before you provide any personal data.\n\n#### Cookies and web beacons\n\nCookies and web beacons are electronic placeholders that are placed on your device by websites to track your individual movements on that website over time. GESDA uses both session-based cookies (which last only for the duration of the user's session) and persistent cookies (which remain on your device and provide information about the session you are in and waits for the next time you use that site again).\n\nThese cookies and web beacons provide useful information to GESDA, enabling us to recognize repeat users, facilitate the user's access to and use of our sites, allows us to track usage behavior, and to balance the usage of our websites on all GESDA web servers.\nTracking cookies, third-party cookies, and other technologies such as web beacons may be used to process additional information, enable non-core functionalities on the GESDA website and enable third-party functions (such as a social media \"share\" link). We may also include web beacons and other similar technology in promotional email messages to determine whether the messages have been opened.\n\n#### Do Not Track (DNT)\n\nThe online advertising industry has self-regulatory initiatives designed to provide consumers a choice in the types of ads they may see online and to conveniently opt-out from online behavioral ads served by some or all of the companies participating in these programs. Our websites do not respond to DNT consumer browser settings.\n\n#### Responses to legal requests\n\nGESDA reserves the right to share your information to respond to duly authorized information requests of governmental authorities or where required by law.\n\n#### Your data rights\n\nGESDA complies with all applicable data privacy laws and regulations including, but not limited to, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA). Under these laws and regulations, you may have certain rights to your data. 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