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The optimal solution may be one that deploys modification technologies alongside other climate responses such as emissions reduction and CO<sub>2</sub> removal.[2](/citation/2024-3-3-6-2/) Overall, there is growing scientific consensus that this approach would work in a technical sense, with some limitations.[3](/citation/2024-3-3-6-3/) [4](/citation/2024-3-3-6-4/)\n\nHowever, all SRM approaches raise challenging questions such as who should control the technologies, if and when they should be deployed and what should happen if a deployment goes wrong or fails entirely. Another concern is “moral hazard”: the possibility that investing in these SRM approaches would reduce the impetus to cut greenhouse gas emissions.\n\nGiven the increase in global mean temperatures, decisions about whether to research and deploy SRM are becoming increasingly urgent. However, there is a pressing need to develop international governance frameworks for deciding whether or not to conduct SRM field experiments and, if that decision is positive, how they should be conducted — and to prepare for making decisions whether or not to deploy at some point in the future. \n\nSome governments and funding bodies are rising to the challenge, with the European Commission[5](/citation/2024-3-3-6-5/) and White House Office of Science and Technology Policy[6](/citation/2024-3-3-6-6/) both promoting further investigation and the UK starting a £10.5 million research programme.[7](/citation/2024-3-3-6-7/) However, in March 2024, the field suffered a setback when the UN Environment Assembly failed to agree on the establishment of a scientific expert group to advise on SRM. The failure reflected concern in developing countries about the nature of the research and how the results would be used.[8](/citation/2024-3-3-6-8/)\n\n**KEY TAKEAWAYS**\n\nReducing the amount of solar radiation incident upon Earth’s surface could help mitigate global warming, and strategies for reducing this radiation flux are under investigation. **Stratospheric aerosol injection**, which involves injecting chemicals into the lower stratosphere to reflect back some incoming sunlight, is promising, but raises a number of concerns. **Cloud engineering** schemes also show some promise but could lead to localised cooling and regional changes in precipitation pattern. **Terrestrial solar radiation modification** schemes to increase reflection of solar radiation back into space, such as painting more of Earth’s surface white, or artificially regrowing Arctic ice, are also under consideration. Further from possible implementation, but perhaps more impactful in the long term, are the **Space-based solar radiation modification** strategies such as radiation-reflecting satellites that carry panels to reflect solar radiation or shade portions of the Earth from the sun’s rays. All of these possible pathways require intense scrutiny and international cooperation if unintended adverse consequences are to be avoided."},"intro":{"text":"Solar radiation modification (SRM) is a set of approaches that could fully or partially offset the temperature rise caused by greenhouse-gas emissions, thus reducing some of the harmful impacts of anthropogenic climate change.[1](/citation/2024-3-3-6-1/)"},"anticipatoryImpact":{"text":"Three fundamental questions guide GESDA’s mission and drive its work: Who are we, as humans? How can we all live together? How can we ensure the well-being of humankind and the sustainable future of our planet? We asked researchers from the field to anticipate what impact future breakthroughs could have on each of these dimensions. This wheel summarises their opinions when considering each of these questions, with a higher score indicating high anticipated impact, and vice versa.\n\n* Anticipated impact on who we are as humans\n* Anticipated impact on how we will all live together\n* Anticipated impact on the well-being of humankind and sustainable future of our planet"},"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aaf7","value":"0.456","numericValue":0.456,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"editions":[{"id":"66ab1bb636a8f2f336a557bf","name":"2024","slug":"2024","numericValue":2024},{"id":"684951c963371e51d83bdf31","name":"2025","slug":"2025","numericValue":2025}],"anticipatoryImpactImage":{"image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/psp-pl-3-25-3-6_image__PSP-PL3_25_3.6_tzfgrl","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760070387/gesda-platform/image-asset/psp-pl-3-25-3-6_image__PSP-PL3_25_3.6_tzfgrl.webp"}},"embeds":{"citations":[{"id":"66f4d3dd09a10d3d0e148fb2","slug":"2024-3-3-6-1","url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00142576","name":"Climate engineering a review of aerosol approaches to changing the global energy balance","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3dd09a10d3d0e148fb0","name":"R. E. Dickinson","slug":"r-e-dickinson"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Climatic Change","accessDate":null,"startPage":1996,"volume":33,"footnoteNumber":1,"year":null},{"id":"66f4d3de09a10d3d0e148fb4","slug":"2024-3-3-6-2","url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074281","name":"Simultaneous stabilization of global temperature and precipitation through cocktail geoengineering","authors":[{"id":"65c55c9b9e947c4386989ad3","name":"L. Cao","slug":"l-cao"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Geophys Res Lett","accessDate":null,"startPage":7429,"volume":44,"footnoteNumber":2,"year":null},{"id":"66f4d3de09a10d3d0e148fb8","slug":"2024-3-3-6-3","url":"https://www.c2g2.net/intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change/","name":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3de09a10d3d0e148fb6","name":"IPCC","slug":"ipcc"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"IPCC Sixth Assessment Report","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":3,"year":null},{"id":"66f4d3de09a10d3d0e148fba","slug":"2024-3-3-6-4","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-019-0004-7","name":"Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar geoengineering research","authors":[{"id":"65c55c9b9e947c4386989916","name":"B. Kravitz","slug":"b-kravitz"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nat Rev Earth Environ","accessDate":null,"startPage":64,"volume":1,"footnoteNumber":4,"year":null},{"id":"66f4d3df09a10d3d0e148fbc","slug":"2024-3-3-6-5","url":"https://doi.org/10.17226/25762","name":"Engineering","authors":[{"id":"66f4d37609a10d3d0e148c76","name":"N. Academies","slug":"n-academies"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":5,"year":null},{"id":"66f4d3df09a10d3d0e148fc0","slug":"2024-3-3-6-6","url":"https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/research/publications/a-new-era-of-policy-in-solar-geoengineering","name":"A New Era of Policy in Solar Geoengineering","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3df09a10d3d0e148fbe","name":"S. Talati","slug":"s-talati"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Kleinman Center for Energy Policy","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":6,"year":null},{"id":"66f4d3e009a10d3d0e148fc4","slug":"2024-3-3-6-7","url":"https://www.ukri.org/news/research-programme-to-model-impact-of-solar-radiation-management/","name":"Research Programme to Model Impact of Solar Radiation Management","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3df09a10d3d0e148fc2","name":"UKRI","slug":"ukri"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"UK Research and Innovation","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":7,"year":null},{"id":"66f4d3e009a10d3d0e148fc8","slug":"2024-3-3-6-8","url":"https://www.twn.my/title2/climate/info.service/2024/cc240302.htm","name":"Solar Radiation Modification Resolution Withdrawn at UNEA-6","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3e009a10d3d0e148fc6","name":"R. Chaterjee","slug":"r-chaterjee"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Third World Network","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":8,"year":null}],"imageAssets":[]},"surveyObservations":{"text":"Solar radiation modification (SRM) could fully or partially offset the temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions, reducing some of the harmful impacts of climate change. The high anticipation scores are reflective of the relative immaturity of the science and technology required to modify or deflect the sun's rays, low awareness of the field and disruptive potential if development is successful. Some experts question whether the social and political ramifications of being able to deploy such technologies should preclude further investigation."},"color":null,"banner":{"id":"66ea7d89855ab8592c96f427","name":"Banner - Topic 3.6","description":{"text":""},"image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/banner/banner-topic-3-6_image__banner-topic-3_Header_ip5m3t","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1726643564/gesda-platform/banner/banner-topic-3-6_image__banner-topic-3_Header_ip5m3t.webp","thumbnails":{"mainBanner":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_1440/v1726643564/gesda-platform/banner/banner-topic-3-6_image__banner-topic-3_Header_ip5m3t.webp","url2x":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_2880/v1726643564/gesda-platform/banner/banner-topic-3-6_image__banner-topic-3_Header_ip5m3t.webp"}}}},"chartImage":null,"citations":[{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Journal","slug":"2024-3-3-6-1","url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00142576","name":"Climate engineering a review of aerosol approaches to changing the global energy balance","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3dd09a10d3d0e148fb0","name":"R. E. Dickinson","slug":"r-e-dickinson"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Climatic Change","accessDate":null,"startPage":1996,"volume":33,"footnoteNumber":1,"year":null},{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Journal","slug":"2024-3-3-6-2","url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074281","name":"Simultaneous stabilization of global temperature and precipitation through cocktail geoengineering","authors":[{"id":"65c55c9b9e947c4386989ad3","name":"L. Cao","slug":"l-cao"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Geophys Res Lett","accessDate":null,"startPage":7429,"volume":44,"footnoteNumber":2,"year":null},{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Journal","slug":"2024-3-3-6-3","url":"https://www.c2g2.net/intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change/","name":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3de09a10d3d0e148fb6","name":"IPCC","slug":"ipcc"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"IPCC Sixth Assessment Report","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":3,"year":null},{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Journal","slug":"2024-3-3-6-4","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-019-0004-7","name":"Uncertainty and the basis for confidence in solar geoengineering research","authors":[{"id":"65c55c9b9e947c4386989916","name":"B. Kravitz","slug":"b-kravitz"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nat Rev Earth Environ","accessDate":null,"startPage":64,"volume":1,"footnoteNumber":4,"year":null},{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Report","slug":"2024-3-3-6-5","url":"https://doi.org/10.17226/25762","name":"Engineering","authors":[{"id":"66f4d37609a10d3d0e148c76","name":"N. Academies","slug":"n-academies"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":5,"year":null},{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Report","slug":"2024-3-3-6-6","url":"https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/research/publications/a-new-era-of-policy-in-solar-geoengineering","name":"A New Era of Policy in Solar Geoengineering","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3df09a10d3d0e148fbe","name":"S. Talati","slug":"s-talati"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Kleinman Center for Energy Policy","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":6,"year":null},{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Report","slug":"2024-3-3-6-7","url":"https://www.ukri.org/news/research-programme-to-model-impact-of-solar-radiation-management/","name":"Research Programme to Model Impact of Solar Radiation Management","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3df09a10d3d0e148fc2","name":"UKRI","slug":"ukri"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"UK Research and Innovation","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":7,"year":null},{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Report","slug":"2024-3-3-6-8","url":"https://www.twn.my/title2/climate/info.service/2024/cc240302.htm","name":"Solar Radiation Modification Resolution Withdrawn at UNEA-6","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3e009a10d3d0e148fc6","name":"R. Chaterjee","slug":"r-chaterjee"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Third World Network","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":8,"year":null}],"subTopics":[{"id":"65c55d4f9e947c438698b6a6","name":"Stratospheric aerosol injection","path":"/sub-topics/stratospheric-aerosol-injection","outlineNumber":null,"slug":"stratospheric-aerosol-injection","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":null,"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7bd","slug":"solar-radiation-modification","path":"/topics/solar-radiation-modification"},"intro":{"text":"The most prominent and most-studied approach to SRM is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). This entails injecting aerosols into the lower stratosphere to reflect back some incoming sunlight, reducing the amount of solar radiation that the Earth absorbs. "},"description":{"text":"There is evidence that SAI can offset some of the impacts of climate change, but will come with ancillary risks of its own. Crucially, it would be possible to restore the average global temperature to pre-industrial levels if sufficient quantities of aerosols were injected in a sustained fashion.[9](/citation/2024-3-3-6-9/) However, modelling studies suggest that it is not possible to reset temperatures in every region. The same applies to precipitation, wind patterns and other aspects of climate. So, while SAI could lead to a more favourable outcome overall, there would inevitably be some winners and some losers.[10](/citation/2024-3-3-6-10/)\n\nSulphate aerosols are the most commonly proposed substance for SAI. However, sulphur’s potential to damage the ozone layer or lead to acid rain is a significant concern and this is driving research into alternative materials, such as calcites or chalk powder. A better understanding of the way all these materials interact with the upper atmosphere is much needed.\n\nThe overwhelming majority of studies of the effectiveness and consequences of SAI have been carried out through computer modelling. Most of the field tests that have been proposed have been called off after facing opposition.[11](/citation/2024-3-3-6-11/) But a small number have taken place, carried out by independent researchers and funded by entrepreneurs, raising concern over the possibility of unilateral action.[12](/citation/2024-3-3-6-12/) [13](/citation/2024-3-3-6-13/) "},"anticipationScores":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate: \n\n1. The *uncertainty* related to future science breakthroughs in the field\n2. The *transformative* *effect* anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society\n3. The *scope for action* in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs. \n\nThis chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the *Anticipation Potential* for the topic. See [methodology](/science-anticipation/methodology) for more information."},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"68e89d6863d1c853e9788c6f","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/3-6-1-sub-anti-2026_image__3.6.1_sub_anti_2026_t3rsru","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760075099/gesda-platform/image-asset/3-6-1-sub-anti-2026_image__3.6.1_sub_anti_2026_t3rsru.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a80b","name":"3.6.1 - 25-year horizon","slug":"3-6-1-25-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Governance of SAI deployment begins"},"description":{"text":"Advances in high-resolution modelling capabilities give better understanding of SAI’s impacts at local and regional scale. A global treaty provides a binding framework for long-term governance of SAI deployment as one of many climate-change-mitigation techniques. Its provisions also provide for a global authority to implement AI on behalf of the global community. "},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a80a","name":"3.6.1 - 10-year horizon","slug":"3-6-1-10-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Modelling informs decision-making"},"description":{"text":"Continued indoor modelling research, particularly with advanced machine-learning techniques, as well as outdoor field experiments, result in sufficient information to begin to allow evidence-based decision-making on whether or not to consider SAI as a supplemental option to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Governance frameworks that had been put in place to guide international coordinated research on SAI, as well as further research on governance needs of SAI and the available evidence base, result in beginning work toward an international treaty for the long-term governance of SAI."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a809","name":"3.6.1 - 5-year horizon","slug":"3-6-1-5-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"SAI conversations begin"},"description":{"text":"An increase in research funding begins to establish a much-needed evidence base to inform discussion. The report of the Climate Overshoot Commission, COP28’s global stocktake, UN Environment Assembly and General Assembly considerations, and a special IPCC report on SRM increases the sense of climate urgency, and informed global conversations about SAI to begin. Moreover, they encourage internationally coordinated outdoor SRM research programmes to take place and to better understand the risks, benefits and governance challenges of SRM."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aafa","value":"0.502","numericValue":0.502,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2024-3-3-6-9","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0398-8","name":"Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards","authors":[{"name":"P. Irvine"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nat Clim Change","accessDate":null,"startPage":295,"volume":9,"footnoteNumber":9,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-3-3-6-10","url":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074013","name":"A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering","authors":[{"name":"B. Kravitz"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Environmental Research Letters","accessDate":null,"startPage":74013,"volume":9,"footnoteNumber":10,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-3-3-6-11","url":"https://grist.org/science/who-gets-to-decide-if-we-study-solar-geoengineering-after-the-scopex-project-canceled/","name":"Why a landmark experiment into dimming the sun got cancelled","authors":[{"name":"S. Osaka"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Grist","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":11,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-3-3-6-12","url":"https://www.science.org/content/article/could-solar-geoengineering-cool-planet-u-s-gets-serious-about-finding-out","name":"Could Solar Geoengineering Cool the Planet?","authors":[{"name":"P. Voosen"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Science","accessDate":null,"startPage":628,"volume":379,"footnoteNumber":12,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-3-3-6-13","url":"https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/03/01/1069283/researchers-launched-a-solar-geoengineering-test-flight-in-the-uk-last-fall","name":"Researchers Launched a Solar Geoengineering Test Flight in the UK Last Fall","authors":[{"name":"J. Temple"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"MIT Technology Review","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":13,"year":null}],"imageAssets":[]}},{"id":"65c55d4f9e947c438698b65c","name":"Cloud engineering","path":"/sub-topics/cloud-engineering","outlineNumber":null,"slug":"cloud-engineering","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":null,"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7bd","slug":"solar-radiation-modification","path":"/topics/solar-radiation-modification"},"intro":{"text":"A number of SRM technologies involve altering the properties of clouds, causing the clouds to reflect more solar radiation back into space. Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is one form of cloud engineering. The idea is to spray droplets of seawater into the sky, with sea-salt crystals providing additional seed nuclei for water droplets to condense.[14](/citation/2024-3-3-6-14/) This would make marine clouds whiter and more reflective, sending more solar radiation back into space and cooling the surrounding region. A range of spray technologies have been considered.[15](/citation/2024-3-3-6-15/)"},"description":{"text":"Various researchers have also proposed thinning and dispersing high-altitude cirrus clouds, which contribute to warming by trapping a disproportionately large amount of terrestrial radiation that would otherwise escape into space.[16](/citation/2024-3-3-6-16/) Injecting these clouds with particles of bismuth tri-iodide allows the formation of large ice crystals within the clouds. These large ice crystals fall out more rapidly, shortening the clouds’ lifespan. Cirrus reduction can improve the transmission of long-wave terrestrial radiation into space.[17](/citation/2024-3-3-6-17/)\n\nIn February 2024, researchers at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration proposed injecting ice-nucleating particles into the troposphere to prevent water vapour reaching the stratosphere, where it usually absorbs outgoing radiation. This “intentional stratospheric dehydration” would help to cool the planet by increasing outbound radiation, although significant technical and practical hurdles would need to be overcome first.[18](/citation/2024-3-3-6-18/)\n\nWhereas SAI has a globally uniform effect, cloud-engineering techniques produce more localised cooling, allowing them to be used in a targeted way. For instance, Australian MCB could be used to cool major coral reefs, which suffer bleaching when water temperatures become too high.[19](/citation/2024-3-3-6-19/)"},"anticipationScores":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate: \n\n1. The *uncertainty* related to future science breakthroughs in the field\n2. The *transformative* *effect* anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society\n3. The *scope for action* in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs. \n\nThis chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the *Anticipation Potential* for the topic. See [methodology](/science-anticipation/methodology) for more information."},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"68e8919f63d1c853e9788bac","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/3-6-2-sub-anti-2026_image__3.6.2_sub_anti_2026_vvndpj","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760072081/gesda-platform/image-asset/3-6-2-sub-anti-2026_image__3.6.2_sub_anti_2026_vvndpj.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a80e","name":"3.6.2 - 25-year horizon","slug":"3-6-2-25-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"MCB in regular use"},"description":{"text":"MCB is in regular use over corals and other heat-sensitive ecosystems during heatwaves."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a80d","name":"3.6.2 - 10-year horizon","slug":"3-6-2-10-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Small-scale MCB begins"},"description":{"text":"The first prototypes of automated ships that can spray seawater for MCB are launched. The first official small-scale use of MCB is undertaken over endangered corals. 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This is because dark surfaces absorb more of the Sun’s heat, while light-coloured surfaces reflect more back into space. As a result, making the surface of the planet lighter — increasing its albedo — can have cooling effects.[20](/citation/2024-3-3-6-20/)"},"description":{"text":"One prominent method is to paint roofs white or other pale colours. This can have direct benefits to the local populations, including mitigating the worst effects of heatwaves. Furthermore, the cost is relatively low.[21](/citation/2024-3-3-6-21/)\n\nIn areas not covered by buildings and roads, plants with light-coloured leaves can also change the local albedo. This is cited as a potential downside of planting additional trees on grassland areas: trees are typically darker than grass, so they lower the albedo and may thus contribute some warming. 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This would be placed at a carefully chosen position between the Earth and the Sun, in order to produce a permanent partial solar eclipse. The ideal location would be Lagrange Point 1, where the gravitational pulls of the Sun and Earth are balanced.[24](/citation/2024-3-3-6-24/)\n\nResearchers have also considered a number of alternative reflectors for reducing the radiation incident on Earth.[25](/citation/2024-3-3-6-25/). These include Fresnel lenses, diffraction gratings and mirrors.[26](/citation/2024-3-3-6-26/) [27](/citation/2024-3-3-6-27/) The key considerations are the robustness of the design to meteoroids and other threats, and the mass of the structure — which must be carried into space by rocket, or else manufactured in space, adding to the cost.\n\nAll these technologies face considerable technical and economic barriers.[28](/citation/2024-3-3-6-28/) For example, an occulting disc at Lagrange Point 1 would need to have a surface area of millions of square kilometres: no structure remotely close to such a scale has ever been constructed in space. Furthermore, such projects arguably also create a dangerous single point of failure in our climate-mitigation strategies: in contrast to Earth-based forms of SRM, the scale of investment and hardware deployment required for a space-based reflector would mean putting all our eggs in one basket, with catastrophic risks if the project failed."},"anticipationScores":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate: \n\n1. The *uncertainty* related to future science breakthroughs in the field\n2. 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