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They have also made progress towards creating non-enzymatic versions of many biological systems, such as metabolic cycles. However, nobody has succeeded in triggering the self-assembly of a simple living cell from chemical building blocks. The inability to perform experiments replicating the jump from chemistry to biology indicates that there are fundamental properties of life that are still not fully understood.\n\nLikewise, we have little hard evidence about how life went from a simple and isolated system to its current planetary scale. The rapidly developing fields of systems biology, systems chemistry, and synthetic biology offer enormous opportunities to better understand the principles underlying cellular integration and the evolution of complexity. There was probably a gradual development from simple living systems to the more intricate living cells we now recognise, such as bacteria. Systems approaches and synthetic biology will be crucial for understanding how this early phase of evolution played out.\n\nStudies of microbial ecosystems have a big role to play in understanding the earliest life on Earth. They narrow down the range of conditions under which life can exist and thrive, and the mechanisms by which microbes survive. Fossils of ancient microbial ecosystems can reveal details of the earliest life on Earth, and our ability to reliably extract information about them is improving. However, such fossils remain rare, so studies of present-day ecosystems that mimic those that existed on the early Earth are also used to explore microbial ecology in finer detail.\n\nUnderstanding the origins of life is also a means of asking a wider biological question: is life rare, or a repeatable phenomenon? Systematic studies of the emergence of life should give rise to universal principles of biology, enabling us to understand what is required for a planet to become a living biosphere. Studies of other worlds in the solar system and of exoplanets elsewhere in the galaxy have not yet identified conclusive evidence of life. Purported biosignatures such as the presence of specific gases in the atmosphere can often be explained away if abiotic processes can be shown to also produce them. However, there is growing evidence that the chemical inventory needed for life is widespread in the solar system and, historically, on other worlds that may now be lifeless, notably Mars. It may be that these worlds once gave rise to simple life, but it was unable to thrive, in which case they can help us understand the limits of life – and guide our search for extrasolar life.\n\nThere is an enormous opportunity to make faster progress by improving the flow of information between different fields. The origins of life is an inherently interdisciplinary problem, as is exobiology. Facilitating more cooperation between biologists and chemists, and between ecologists, evolutionary biologists, systems chemists, computational chemists, and AI specialists, would drive advances.\n\n**Key takeaways**\n\nWe have little hard evidence about how life arose, but a number of rapidly developing approaches are gaining traction. Prebiotic Chemistry, the study of the synthesis of key biological molecules, is benefiting from enormous progress, especially towards understanding the abiotic production of nucleic acids. Studies of artificial cells are helping to narrow the gap between complicated non-living chemistry and the simplest unambiguous life forms. Such Systems and Synthetic Biology experiments are shedding light on the fundamental processes of life and the essential requirements of living cells. The study of Ancient and Modern Analogue Environments is improving and broadening our understanding of the environments where life might have first thrived, and how it did so. Exobiology has not yet found conclusive evidence of life on other worlds, but researchers have found a growing diversity of organic molecules, especially on Mars and on icy moons. The challenge is to determine whether these are produced by biotic or abiotic processes. "},"intro":{"text":"Understanding how life arose from non-living chemicals remains a scientific challenge. This question is of profound importance, both for our own origins and for understanding where we might find life (including intelligent life) elsewhere in the universe."},"anticipatoryImpact":{"text":"This graph shows the opinion of current researchers in the field on how anticipated developments in their field will impact each of GESDA’s three essential questions: Who are we as humans? How can we best live together in societies? What is our relationship with the planet? GESDA’s science anticipation aims to inform discussion around these three questions."},"indicatorValues":[{"id":"6ac24cf0db23afee600d33f7","value":"0.5483217593","numericValue":0.5483217593,"year":2026,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}},{"id":"6ac24d06db23afee600d33fd","value":"0.5179398148","numericValue":0.5179398148,"year":2026,"indicator":{"id":"6a86a906592c5bababa6ba7e","name":"Significance of possible future advances","title":"Significance of possible future advances","slug":"significance-of-possible-future-advances","dataSetId":"NORMALISED_MEAN_IMPACT_RESEARCH_PSP","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a30e","value":"#0076B7"}}},{"id":"6ac24d22db23afee600d3403","value":"0.5787037037","numericValue":0.5787037037,"year":2026,"indicator":{"id":"6a86a946592c5bababa6ba8b","name":"Potential for impactful action","title":"Potential for impactful action","slug":"potential-for-impactful-action-1","dataSetId":"SCOPE_FOR_ACTION","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a320","value":"#EB6410"}}},{"id":"6ac24d35db23afee600d3409","value":"0.4444444444","numericValue":0.4444444444,"year":2026,"indicator":{"id":"6a9f993c670cd190fd1356df","name":"Impact on People","title":"Impact on People","slug":"impact-on-people","dataSetId":null,"color":{"id":"6a9fa21e670cd190fd1356f8","value":"#fcbe0d"}}},{"id":"6ac24d48db23afee600d340f","value":"0.4375","numericValue":0.4375,"year":2026,"indicator":{"id":"6a9f994c670cd190fd1356e3","name":"Impact on Planet","title":"Impact on Planet","slug":"impact-on-planet","dataSetId":null,"color":{"id":"6a9fa245670cd190fd135700","value":"#83a599"}}},{"id":"6ac24d61db23afee600d3415","value":"0.4027777778","numericValue":0.4027777778,"year":2026,"indicator":{"id":"6a9f995c670cd190fd1356e7","name":"Impact on Society","title":"Impact on Society","slug":"impact-on-society","dataSetId":null,"color":{"id":"6a9fa236670cd190fd1356fc","value":"#d88c73"}}}],"editions":[{"id":"6916e223c3e8f4530aa9c10c","name":"2026","slug":"2026","numericValue":2026}],"anticipatoryImpactImage":null,"embeds":{"citations":[],"imageAssets":[]},"surveyObservations":{"text":""},"color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B","darkValue":"#066152","veryDarkValue":"#02201b"},"banner":{"id":"6aacbb9217b8b67dc808a669","name":"\"Mineral Pollock Painting\" by Stefan Ansermet, Natural Sciences Museum of Lausanne","description":{"text":"*\"[Mineral Pollock Painting](https://www.flickr.com/photos/snsfimagecompetition/53616876345/in/photolist-2qWyWdy-2nxWjgN-6nqU5L-6nqU4G-6nqU7o-6nmLnc-6nqU8U-6nqU85-2pFWvmv-9KLdDq-4DvBx-2qiVMSZ)\" by Stefan Ansermet, Natural Sciences Museum of Lausanne*"},"license":{"id":"6aa9e84b54b72e716552237f","name":"CC BY-NC-ND 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","description":{"text":""}},"image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/banner/mineral-pollock-painting-by-stefan-ansermet-natural-sciences-museum-of-lausanne_image__Mineral-Pollock-Painting-by-Stefan-Ansermet-Natural-Sciences-Museum-of-Lausanne_1536x2048_dmicbf","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1789705077/gesda-platform/banner/mineral-pollock-painting-by-stefan-ansermet-natural-sciences-museum-of-lausanne_image__Mineral-Pollock-Painting-by-Stefan-Ansermet-Natural-Sciences-Museum-of-Lausanne_1536x2048_dmicbf.webp","width":1536,"height":2048,"thumbnails":{"mainBanner":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_1440/v1789705077/gesda-platform/banner/mineral-pollock-painting-by-stefan-ansermet-natural-sciences-museum-of-lausanne_image__Mineral-Pollock-Painting-by-Stefan-Ansermet-Natural-Sciences-Museum-of-Lausanne_1536x2048_dmicbf.webp","url2x":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_2880/v1789705077/gesda-platform/banner/mineral-pollock-painting-by-stefan-ansermet-natural-sciences-museum-of-lausanne_image__Mineral-Pollock-Painting-by-Stefan-Ansermet-Natural-Sciences-Museum-of-Lausanne_1536x2048_dmicbf.webp"}}}},"chartImage":null,"citations":[],"subTopics":[{"id":"6ac24b46db23afee600d3395","name":"Prebiotic Chemistry","path":"/sub-topics/prebiotic-chemistry","outlineNumber":null,"slug":"prebiotic-chemistry-1","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","value":"#68AE9B"},"topic":{"id":"6ac24d68db23afee600d341b","slug":"science-of-the-origins-of-life-1","path":"/topics/science-of-the-origins-of-life-1"},"intro":{"text":"The field of prebiotic chemistry is shifting from chemical synthesis to chemical systems. Early studies focused on making particular biomolecules, such as specific nucleobases or cofactors, based on the methods of organic chemistry.[^1] However, in many cases the pathways proposed did not reflect real environments and ecosystems, which feature many more interacting processes, including feedbacks.[^2] Consequently, prebiotic chemists are attempting increasingly “messy” and open-ended experiments that mimic the complex interactions of cellular metabolism and of ecosystems.[^3] These were previously not viable, but increasingly sensitive analytical techniques now enable such complex systems to be tracked in detail.[^4] In parallel, some researchers are creating systematic databases to bring together existing data and enable meta-analysis.[^5]"},"description":{"text":"Preserved samples of real prebiotic chemistry can be found in meteorites. A range of biomolecules, such as nucleosides and sugars, have been identified in these rocky bodies.[^6] There is also emerging evidence that these organic chemicals can in turn affect the surrounding minerals.[^7] These samples offer clues to the environmental constraints on prebiotic synthesis: for instance, there is little evidence of polymerisation, indicating that conditions were not suitable for this crucial step.\n\nA key challenge is to understand the diversity of conditions on the early Earth, and thus how to conduct prebiotic chemistry experiments. For instance, the atmosphere was predominantly composed of reducing chemicals, which seemingly rules out certain kinds of reactions. However, there may have been small regions or compartments with radically different conditions. Investigation of a diversity of conditions and associated microbial metabolisms on the modern Earth have demonstrated not only micro-environments where so-called “dark oxygen” may be available for metabolism,[^8] but processes by which radiogenic chemical reactions can produce a range of electron donors and electron acceptors for life (including H<sub>2</sub>, SO<sub>4</sub>, acetate, and small-molecule-weight organic acids).[^9]<sup>,</sup>[^10]<sup>,</sup>[^11] This could include supplies of free oxygen, produced by photodissociation or radiolysis, which would enable different chemistries.[^12] Alkaline hydrothermal vents on the sea-floor and subsurface groundwaters within the continental crust[^13] may have offered diverse geochemical conditions.[^14] Such systems can now be simulated in the lab using “chemical gardens”.[^15]\n\nLifelike processes are often enabled by surfaces, such as those of minerals, and by interfaces, such as air-water.[^16] Confined compartments and microenvironments, such as gas pockets in the subsurface, may be crucial.[^17] Liquid droplets called coacervates (also known as biological condensates and found in all living cells) are one promising candidate for the microenvironment in which biological processes emerged.[^18] A number of environments are now receiving more attention, including carbonate lakes,[^19] terrestrial hydrothermal fields[^20] and ice.[^21] Early Earth may have had ice fields and glaciers, which may have been enriched by cosmic dust.[^22] Several recent experiments indicate that prebiotic synthesis takes place on interstellar ice,[^23] and that such ice can produce key catalysts that drive the production of more complex biological molecules.[^24]\n\nAnother major open question is the energy source or sources that drove the emergence of life. Ultraviolet light, which was abundant on the young Earth due to the absence of an ozone layer, has been shown to drive many prebiotic syntheses.[^25] However, there are also many plausible chemical sources of energy, such as the products of radiogenic energy referenced above. Prebiotic chemists have an opportunity to explore these different energy sources and learn which processes they do and do not enable.\n\nThere is considerable scope for applying machine learning and other forms of AI to prebiotic chemistry.[^26] Such tools may be useful hypothesis generators, proposing novel reaction pathways and cycles. Machine learning could be used to create atom-level simulations of complex interacting chemical mixtures.[^27]"},"anticipationScores":{"text":""},"anticipationScoresImage":null,"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"6ac24ad6db23afee600d3380","name":"5 year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon-44","intro":{"text":"Studies embrace complexity"},"description":{"text":"In the near term, studies of dynamic prebiotic chemistry systems may be able to include more complex processes, such as history-dependence that resembles biological heritability. Researchers are likely to undertake systematic investigation of wet-dry cycling as a driver of polymerisation and complexity. While complexity has focused predominantly on microbial life, increasing progress will continue to be made on a more ecological basis, including investigations of prions and viruses."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"6ac24ae9db23afee600d3385","name":"10 year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon-45","intro":{"text":"Extraterrestrial biochemicals are better understood"},"description":{"text":"In the next decade research could gain a systematic understanding of the biochemicals produced – and not produced – in extraterrestrial materials such as meteorites and in simulacra of the prebiotic Earth. This could reveal the conditions required for a full complement of prebiotic chemicals. We are likely to see the creation of increasingly efficient and shorter ribozymes capable of self-maintenance below the error threshold."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"6ac24afcdb23afee600d338a","name":"25 year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon-44","intro":{"text":"Early Earth conditions are understood"},"description":{"text":"A catalogue of the diverse environmental and chemical conditions present on the early Earth may be developed in this time frame. Systematic comparisons of the prebiotic chemistries of multiple environments, including for instance alkaline vents, subsurface-fracture rock aquifers, geothermal ponds, and ice-water interfaces should become possible, and the energy drivers for ecosystems are likely to be expanded to include both photosynthetic energy and chemolithotrophic energy drivers for life."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"6ac24b43db23afee600d338f","value":"0.5405092593","numericValue":0.5405092593,"year":2026,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[],"imageAssets":[]}},{"id":"6ac24bbddb23afee600d33b3","name":"Systems and Synthetic Biology","path":"/sub-topics/systems-and-synthetic-biology","outlineNumber":null,"slug":"systems-and-synthetic-biology","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","value":"#68AE9B"},"topic":{"id":"6ac24d68db23afee600d341b","slug":"science-of-the-origins-of-life-1","path":"/topics/science-of-the-origins-of-life-1"},"intro":{"text":"Origins of life researchers increasingly view life not as a set of canonical chemicals but as a set of interacting processes. From this point of view, life is a chemical system that is out of equilibrium: it is inherently unstable and can be maintained only by continual infusions of energy. The questions this raises are, how can such a system develop from a purely chemical system and how can it start undergoing evolution?[^28] In other words, how can a system undergoing chemical evolution transition into biological evolution, which relies on mechanisms of energy conservation and genes that can be imperfectly copied and passed onto a new generation?[^29] These questions about different evolutionary processes have not yet been explored in depth, but answering them will reveal general principles of biology. For instance, evolution may require components that can be selected for on the basis of their function.[^30]"},"description":{"text":"In recent years, mathematical and theoretical work has shown that evolution can be treated as a general chemical phenomenon.[^31] For example, simulations of interacting polymers indicate that longer polymers (which are crucial for life as we know it) can form under realistic conditions when autocatalysis is present.[^32] There is now an opportunity to use this theoretical work as inspiration for physical experiments, demonstrating evolutionary processes in chemical mixtures.\n\nThe emergence of living systems and cells was governed by the laws of energy and thermodynamics. These physical laws created essential constraints on how life could evolve, for instance in how rapidly mutations (and therefore changes) could occur.[^33] The first life needed to evolve an energy-conservation mechanism to sustain itself.[^34] Likewise, life often “speculates to accumulate”, pouring energy and resources into a complex process that will ultimately prove beneficial. Explaining how such processes evolve is particularly challenging. Exploring the physical constraints on life and evolution may help us understand which features of biological life are truly necessary and which are “frozen accidents” that have arisen from pure historical contingency.\n\nA key source of insights into living systems will be synthetic biology, which aims to create organisms that are partly or wholly artificial. There is no widely agreed definition of a synthetic cell, but researchers have created cells that are increasingly divergent from those found in nature. Some have entirely artificial genomes, while others have non-canonical genetic codes and amino acids.[^35] A key challenge is to integrate metabolism. While metabolic cycles can be recreated in the lab, these systems ultimately peter out and reach chemical equilibrium, whereas truly living systems remain active and out of equilibrium.[^36] In contrast, a population of truly synthetic cells should be able to undergo open-ended evolution.[^37]<sup>,</sup>[^38]"},"anticipationScores":{"text":""},"anticipationScoresImage":null,"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"6ac24b7ddb23afee600d339e","name":"5 year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon-45","intro":{"text":"A better understanding of metabolism"},"description":{"text":"In the short term there will be rapid advances in our understanding of the early evolution of metabolism. We will have concrete evidence of the frequency of autocatalysis in prebiotically plausible chemical networks."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"6ac24b93db23afee600d33a3","name":"10 year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon-46","intro":{"text":"Experiments investigate small-molecule systems"},"description":{"text":"In the next decade self-replicating protocells might be developed, and experiments inspired by AI may elucidate the evolution-like dynamics of small-molecule chemical systems that are out of thermodynamic equilibrium."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"6ac24ba4db23afee600d33a8","name":"25 year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon-45","intro":{"text":"Self-replicating protocells are created"},"description":{"text":"In the next quarter-century we could be in a position to create self-replicating protocells with integrated metabolisms and to steer non-living matter to evolve in desired directions in the lab."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"6ac24bbbdb23afee600d33ad","value":"0.5295138889","numericValue":0.5295138889,"year":2026,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[],"imageAssets":[]}},{"id":"6ac24c62db23afee600d33d1","name":"Ancient and Modern Analogue Environments","path":"/sub-topics/ancient-and-modern-analogue-environments","outlineNumber":null,"slug":"ancient-and-modern-analogue-environments","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","value":"#68AE9B"},"topic":{"id":"6ac24d68db23afee600d341b","slug":"science-of-the-origins-of-life-1","path":"/topics/science-of-the-origins-of-life-1"},"intro":{"text":"Life itself is a vital guide to how life begins. Modern organisms are all descended, through countless generations, from the first life on Earth. Some of their components and processes seem to have barely changed in billions of years. This means traces of the earliest life can still be found in organisms and ecosystems today. The challenge is to identify which aspects of modern life are truly representative of the first life, and which have evolved more recently."},"description":{"text":"One way to tackle this problem is to study modern microorganisms that live in environments that mimic the conditions of the early Earth – places with little or no oxygen, for example, or where oxidants are produced by radiogenic chemical reactions such as radiolysis. These ecosystems may recapitulate some of what took place billions of years ago. The deep biosphere, found hundreds of metres to kilometres underground, is one such analogue environment: it dwarfs the above-ground biosphere and some researchers argue that life likely originated underground.[^39]<sup>,</sup>[^40] Other useful analogues include groundwater aquifers,[^41] which host microbial communities similar to those found over 2 billion years ago,[^42] and microbialite reefs exposed to high ultraviolet radiation and volcanic inputs, with low oxygen.[^43] Improved analytical techniques now allow researchers to identify ancient proteins in these ecosystems.[^44] A key issue is why some microbial ecosystems retain small populations and low diversity even in the presence of seemingly abundant energy.[^45] There are also growing efforts to grow such microbial communities in the lab, where they can be tracked in detail.[^46] \n\nThese modern ecosystems can be compared with the fossil record, which sometimes preserve signatures of microbial ecosystems from over 3 billion years ago.[^47] These records must be interpreted with care, as multiple processes can contribute to a given formation. Studies of modern analogue environments can shed light on how and why particular formations arise.[^48] Nevertheless, these fossil remnants hint at powerful interactions between the early biosphere and the rest of the planet. For instance, the availability of trace metals changed dramatically over millions of years, affecting the kinds of enzymes life could develop and thus how it would evolve, a process called the bio-inorganic bridge.[^49] There is evidence that life was using the metals molybdenum and tungsten as early as 3.4 billion years ago,[^50] and that the availability of phosphorus was a possible constraint on the size and diversity of early ecosystems.[^51] Many uncertainties remain about conditions on the early Earth, including when sufficient water was available for the planet to be habitable,[^52] how key organic chemicals were produced in volume,[^53] and when oceans and land masses formed.[^54]\n\nWhile our knowledge of microbial diversity has expanded greatly, the vast majority of microbes have never been grown in a lab. This means it is likely that many metabolic pathways and other biochemical systems have not been identified. In many cases it will be necessary to grow microbes in multi-species cultures,[^55] as most do not survive on their own.[^56] This microbiological lab work, while intensive, promises new molecular biology. For instance, in recent years biologists have been able to reprogram the metabolism of bacteria so that they use a completely different food source.[^57] Such studies could reveal how different metabolisms evolved.[^58]\n\nStudies of a diversity of microbial ecosystems on Earth are also key to the search for life elsewhere,[^59] and the discovery of places where life cannot be detected can help us understand the limits of habitability.[^60] The recent expansion of deep subsurface microbial environments, for instance, has shifted our understanding to include chemolithotrophic as well as microbial ecosystems dependent on photosynthesis.[^61] The early Earth can also be used as an analogue for the biogeochemistry of exoplanets.[^62]"},"anticipationScores":{"text":""},"anticipationScoresImage":null,"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"6ac24c2adb23afee600d33bc","name":"5 year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon-46","intro":{"text":"New microbes are isolated"},"description":{"text":"Near-term research is likely to lead to the isolation of many more unknown microbes, yielding new enzymes and metabolic processes. Quantification of the chemical make-up of abiotic backgrounds could allow progress in reliable identification of biotic and abiotic signatures, and we may gain an improved understanding of the fidelity of the geologic record and of Earth’s formation, aiding efforts to understand the processes that led to the formation of life. Emerging methods of genetic manipulation and directed evolution including those inspired by AI may reveal broad patterns of microbial evolution."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"6ac24c3adb23afee600d33c1","name":"10 year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon-47","intro":{"text":"Space missions expand our understanding of Earth’s formation"},"description":{"text":"In the medium term, sample-return missions may reveal details of the early solar system, including Earth’s formation and the origins of the planet’s water. 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Consequently, exobiologists are trying to develop agnostic biosignatures[^72] that can reliably discriminate life and non-life, even if that life is unlike life on Earth.[^73] One way to achieve this is to combine multiple lines of evidence, reducing the level of uncertainty.[^74] This higher standard means any biosignature detected today would likely take decades to be widely accepted.[^75] Using multiple lines of evidence leads to the idea of a ladder of life detection,[^76] where our confidence in detection would gradually increase with additional lines of evidence.[^77] Such reporting frameworks need to be developed and agreed by a wide community of researchers.[^78]\n\nSome worlds may have had life in the distant past but no longer, leaving only chemical and other traces for us to find. 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