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This has transformational potential for diplomatic activity. For instance, efforts have already begun to plot the networks of influence between actors on an international scale and to use artificial intelligence to mine the large databases of texts relating to historical negotiations and international organisations. As such, computational diplomacy is revealing not only the complexity of modern international relations but the potential knock-on effects of future actions, giving opportunities to favour the emergence of desired outcomes. It also allows actors to better understand the history of negotiations and how changes in language reveal movements in position, and to reduce uncertainty in formulating plans.\n\nNegotiation engineering, on the other hand, is a solution-oriented approach to negotiation problems that uses quantitative methods in a heuristic way to find an adequate solution. The approach draws on breaking down and formalising the problem(s) at hand and on the heuristic application of mathematical methods such as game theory and mathematical optimisation. In this way, it can contribute to recognising feelings and better managing them during the negotiation process, as well as allowing for resolutions of more complex real-world issues.\n\n**KEY TAKEAWAYS**\n\nResearchers from a wide range of academic disciplines are collaborating to improve approaches to diplomacy through applying numerical and computational techniques as well as AI. **Computational diplomacy**, for instance, can exploit existing data to better understand past diplomatic achievements and the network structures that facilitated them. Also of interest is **Negotiation engineering**, which is being transformed by AI techniques and raises the possibility that future agreements will be informed by computationally derived understanding and will more successfully bring together broader groups of stakeholders in complex negotiations, while allowing progress with fewer missteps. Similarly, **Predictive peacebuilding** has potential to use machine-learning approaches to increase the chances of achieving greater international stability. **Trust and cooperation modelling** applies computational approaches to the task of establishing relationships that result in positive experiences of cooperation and collaboration experiences while providing tools for distinguishing trustworthy from untrustworthy potential partners.\n"},"intro":{"text":"The “scientification of diplomacy” is based on interdisciplinary work between global governance, international relations, international law, computational social sciences, mathematics, optimisation theory and behavioural research. It covers different emerging fields of research, such as computational diplomacy and negotiation engineering."},"anticipatoryImpact":{"text":"Three fundamental questions guide GESDA’s mission and drive its work: Who are we, as humans? How can we all live together? How can we ensure the well-being of humankind and the sustainable future of our planet? We asked researchers from the field to anticipate what impact future breakthroughs could have on each of these dimensions. This wheel summarises their opinions when considering each of these questions, with a higher score indicating high anticipated impact, and vice versa.\n\n* Anticipated impact on who we are as humans\n* Anticipated impact on how we will all live together\n* Anticipated impact on the well-being of humankind and sustainable future of our planet"},"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aaf2","value":"0.493","numericValue":0.493,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}},{"id":"68a68ff60ac1330579fd78f7","value":"0.5915","numericValue":0.5915,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"editions":[{"id":"66ab1bb636a8f2f336a557bf","name":"2024","slug":"2024","numericValue":2024},{"id":"684951c963371e51d83bdf31","name":"2025","slug":"2025","numericValue":2025}],"anticipatoryImpactImage":{"image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/psp-pl-4-25-4-1_image__PSP-PL4_25_4.1_scgorq","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760070576/gesda-platform/image-asset/psp-pl-4-25-4-1_image__PSP-PL4_25_4.1_scgorq.webp"}},"embeds":{"citations":[],"imageAssets":[]},"surveyObservations":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential scores of the topics covered by Science-based Diplomacy are relatively similar. The main variable driving the scores is the uncertainty of future developments of the related fields. **Predictive peacebuilding** rates slightly higher because of the perceived positive impact it may have on society in the future."},"color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a317","name":"Gold","slug":"gold","value":"#F39323","darkValue":"#936523","veryDarkValue":"#31220c"},"banner":{"id":"66c2b086ae55546b43fe288c","name":"4.1.1 Computational diplomacy 2024","description":{"text":""},"image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/banner/4-1-1-computational-diplomacy_image__4.1.1_Computational_diplomacy-01_ps01ex","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1724035191/gesda-platform/banner/4-1-1-computational-diplomacy_image__4.1.1_Computational_diplomacy-01_ps01ex.webp","thumbnails":{"mainBanner":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_1440/v1724035191/gesda-platform/banner/4-1-1-computational-diplomacy_image__4.1.1_Computational_diplomacy-01_ps01ex.webp","url2x":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_2880/v1724035191/gesda-platform/banner/4-1-1-computational-diplomacy_image__4.1.1_Computational_diplomacy-01_ps01ex.webp"}}}},"chartImage":{"id":"65c55cee9e947c438698a967","slug":"chart-4-1-science-based-diplomacy","image":{"id":"image_gesda-22/image-asset/chart-4-1-science-based-diplomacy_image__TRR-4_2-TBC-01","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1668986396/gesda-22/image-asset/chart-4-1-science-based-diplomacy_image__TRR-4_2-TBC-01.png","url2x":null}},"citations":[],"subTopics":[{"id":"68b04cab1dec39db691bde19","name":"Computational diplomacy","path":"/sub-topics/computational-diplomacy","outlineNumber":"4.1.1","slug":"computational-diplomacy","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a317","name":"Gold","value":"#F39323"},"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7bc","slug":"science-based-diplomacy","path":"/topics/science-based-diplomacy"},"intro":{"text":"The world of diplomacy is rich in data. The United Nations and other international forums have detailed records of debates, speeches and negotiations going back decades. Then there are databases recording demographics, trade, finance, spending and common declarations made by international organisations. Beyond these forums, important sources include records of human rights violations and other data used by international justice organisations. "},"description":{"text":"The cost of processing this data means it has not been well used to inform the process of diplomacy, to amplify cooperation and to improve outcomes. Nevertheless, organisations like the UN, the World Bank and other policy-makers are working hard to integrate quantitative methods into their organisations, which will accelerate the practice of computational diplomacy and its use of big data, machine learning and computational thinking.\n\nThere is much low-hanging fruit here. The networks of actors on the international stage and their institutional relationships are already beginning to be mapped,[1](/citation/2025-04-4-1-1/),[2](/citation/2025-04-4-1-2/),[3](/citation/2025-04-4-1-3/) giving a deeper understanding of the connections that can influence negotiations. Also being mined for insight are resolutions adopted by various international organisations. Relevant examples include the United Nations General Assembly and Security Council resolutions histories,[4](/citation/2025-04-4-1-4/) sponsorship data[5](/citation/2025-04-4-1-5/) and debate themes, as well as the resolutions adopted by the World Health Organization.[6](/citation/2025-04-4-1-6/),[7](/citation/2025-04-4-1-7/) This work is beginning to deliver quantitative results, a crucial step for reproducibility.[8](/citation/2025-04-4-1-8/),[9](/citation/2025-04-4-1-9/),[10](/citation/2025-04-4-1-10/)\n\nMuch more can be done. Combining a data-driven approach with computational modelling can facilitate a more fundamental understanding of how multilateral governance systems work and how they can be improved, for example.[11](/citation/2025-04-4-1-11/) The growing use of AI is likely to have a significant impact here,[12](/citation/2025-04-4-1-12/) but developing the multidisciplinary expertise that can manage and exploit diplomatic processes is a significant challenge."},"anticipationScores":{"text":""},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"68e8986a63d1c853e9788c1e","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/4-1-1-sub-anti-2026_image__4.1.1_sub_anti_2026_keqklp","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760073815/gesda-platform/image-asset/4-1-1-sub-anti-2026_image__4.1.1_sub_anti_2026_keqklp.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b04c4e1dec39db691bddfd","name":"Higher education establishments broaden skill sets for scientists and diplomats","slug":"higher-education-establishments-broaden-skill-sets-for-scientists-and-diplomats","intro":{"text":"Higher education establishments broaden skill sets for scientists and diplomats"},"description":{"text":"Efforts to build capacity for computational diplomacy bear fruit in the form of an increased range of courses and training programmes across relevant disciplines, and in understanding of how disciplines can be integrated as mutually supportive frameworks. Predictive modelling improves at the sub-national level with AI systems providing natural language translations of model outputs."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a317","name":"Gold","slug":"gold","value":"#F39323"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b04c821dec39db691bde0b","name":"Computational techniques uncover new insights into multilateralism","slug":"computational-techniques-uncover-new-insights-into-multilateralism","intro":{"text":"Computational techniques uncover new insights into multilateralism"},"description":{"text":"Computational diplomacy leverages advances in natural-language processing, network science and time-series analysis to uncover new insights into the structure and dynamics of multilateralism. By analysing diplomatic discourse, institutional networks and temporal patterns, the field will enable data-driven operationalisation of the study of cooperation, influence and legitimacy. This will support the emergence of  a dynamic, systems-oriented understanding of global governance."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a317","name":"Gold","slug":"gold","value":"#F39323"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b04ca31dec39db691bde10","name":"Computational diplomacy reshapes international relations as a science","slug":"computational-diplomacy-reshapes-international-relations-as-a-science","intro":{"text":"Computational diplomacy reshapes international relations as a science"},"description":{"text":"The successes with text mining and other data-driven applications allow experts to create a robust theory of diplomacy that makes testable predictions and creates useful frameworks for diplomatic interactions and for improving understanding of international relations. Predictive forecasts become a ubiquitous tool for policy-makers, who will know in advance the effect of their actions and how they may inflame or cool tensions."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a317","name":"Gold","slug":"gold","value":"#F39323"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"68ede5c3af9e6d6d6327104e","value":"0.600","numericValue":0.6,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-2","url":"https://doi.org/10.21248/jlcl.35.2022.229","name":"UNSC-NE: A Named Entity Extension to the UN Security Council","authors":[{"name":"L. 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Pires"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"International Studies Review","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":25,"footnoteNumber":4,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-5","url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2022.2115038","name":"Estimating ideal points from UN General Assembly sponsorship data","authors":[{"name":"R. Mesquita et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"International Interactions","accessDate":null,"startPage":1233,"volume":48,"footnoteNumber":5,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-6","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00311-5","name":"The environment in global health governance: an analysis of environment-related resolutions adopted at the World Health Assembly from 1948 to 2023","authors":[{"name":"M. 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Arias et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Journal of Peace Research","accessDate":null,"startPage":1317,"volume":62,"footnoteNumber":8,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-9","url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae025","name":"The Language of Responsibility in the United Nations Security Council, 1946–2020","authors":[{"name":"F.S. Bethke et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"International Studies Quarterly","accessDate":null,"startPage":25,"volume":68,"footnoteNumber":9,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-10","url":"https://doi.org/10.1093/llc/fqae009","name":"Using deep learning to analyse the times of the UN Security Council. Digital Scholarship in the Humanities","authors":[{"name":"T. Blanke"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"International Studies Quarterly","accessDate":null,"startPage":485,"volume":39,"footnoteNumber":10,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-11","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2023.102096","name":"Fostering interdisciplinary collaboration in computational diplomacy: A multi-layered network approach to improve our understanding of institutional complexity and effective governance design","authors":[{"name":"D. Wernli"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Journal of Computational Science","accessDate":null,"startPage":102096,"volume":72,"footnoteNumber":11,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-12","url":"https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-19-4877-0","name":"Artificial Intelligence and International Relations Theories","authors":[{"name":"B. Ndzendze and T. Marwala"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Springer","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":12,"year":null}],"imageAssets":[]}},{"id":"68b04e341dec39db691bde63","name":"Negotiation engineering","path":"/sub-topics/negotiation-engineering","outlineNumber":"4.1.2","slug":"negotiation-engineering","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a317","name":"Gold","value":"#F39323"},"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7bc","slug":"science-based-diplomacy","path":"/topics/science-based-diplomacy"},"intro":{"text":"Negotiation Engineering uses quantitative methods in a heuristic way to find an adequate solution to a set of complex negotiation problems. In doing so, it particularly draws on the decomposition and the formalisation of the problems at hand and the heuristic application of mathematical methods, such as game theory and mathematical optimisation, to reach agreement.[13](/citation/2025-04-4-1-13/) "},"description":{"text":"This approach could help to reveal the ingredients of success for global cooperation. Numerous non-governmental organisations in complex networks currently aim to solve complex problems such as climate change and the challenges related to Sustainable Development Goals. And yet they often achieve far less than they hope. A better understanding of the way organisations should interact to achieve specific goals could change this. \n\nNegotiation engineering has already achieved a number of practical successes. For instance, in the diplomatic sphere, the approach played a crucial role in the land transport agreement between Switzerland and the European Union, and in facilitating nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 group of nations.[14](/citation/2025-04-4-1-14/)\n\nNegotiation engineering does not intend to replace face-to-face discussion and neither does it seem likely to ever do so. It may in some cases also have limited application: not all problems are quantifiable or should be reduced to a quantitative level. However, in case a negotiation involves problems with a particular degree of complexity and actors with a certain level of analytical capacity open to a rational approach, negotiation engineering can allow for more logical accuracy in finding pragmatic solutions while building trust between mediators. \n\nThe availability of negotiation tools powered by AI has triggered a transformative period in negotiation engineering. These tools are helping human negotiators become more effective and has kick-started a new era of automated negotiations with their own strategies and characteristics. This evolution is paving the way for a greater exploration of the strategy space and the development of new negotiation theories that encompass and extend established theory.[15](/citation/2025-04-4-1-15/),[16](/citation/2025-04-4-1-16/) "},"anticipationScores":{"text":""},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"68e8a2d463d1c853e9788cde","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/4-1-2-sub-anti-2026_image__4.1.2_sub_anti_2026_msws0f","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760076485/gesda-platform/image-asset/4-1-2-sub-anti-2026_image__4.1.2_sub_anti_2026_msws0f.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b04d771dec39db691bde50","name":"Capacity-building accelerates negotiation engineering","slug":"capacity-building-accelerates-negotiation-engineering","intro":{"text":"Capacity-building accelerates negotiation engineering"},"description":{"text":"The automated processing of text to make it machine-readable leads to more advanced models of areas of conflict. This allows stakeholders to map out and discuss potential futures before deciding on a course of action. The exploration of negotiation strategies using AI leads to widely available and expanded toolkits that can be used at every level of society. "},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a317","name":"Gold","slug":"gold","value":"#F39323"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b04db21dec39db691bde59","name":"Mathematical thinking focuses international discussions","slug":"mathematical-thinking-focuses-international-discussions","intro":{"text":"Mathematical thinking focuses international discussions"},"description":{"text":"A new generation of scientists currently being trained in the grammar of computer science and in diplomacy become influential in the diplomatic world. This leads to an increasingly wide variety of international actors applying mathematical methods to their negotiation problems to help focus discussions and to make potential outcomes more logically accurate."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a317","name":"Gold","slug":"gold","value":"#F39323"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b04e2f1dec39db691bde5e","name":"Negotiating standards increase thanks to mathematical approaches","slug":"negotiating-standards-increase-thanks-to-mathematical-approaches","intro":{"text":"Negotiating standards increase thanks to mathematical approaches"},"description":{"text":"Automated negotiations using AI become common in the commercial world and on the international stage. This leads to more sophisticated deal-making — and more devious deal-breaking. Mathematical skills are common in positions of influence allowing negotiation engineering to become a standard tool in many negotiations."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a317","name":"Gold","slug":"gold","value":"#F39323"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"68ede5e5af9e6d6d63271059","value":"0.580","numericValue":0.58,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-13","url":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-017-9547-5","name":"Negotiation Engineering: A Quantitative Problem-Solving Approach to Negotiation","authors":[{"name":"T.W. Langenegger and M.Ambühl"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Group Decision and Negotiation","accessDate":null,"startPage":9,"volume":27,"footnoteNumber":13,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-14","url":"http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/477577","name":"Negotiation Engineering: Why Quantitative Thinking Can Also Be Useful in Negotiations","authors":[{"name":"M. Ambühl and N. Meier"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Swiss Pharma","accessDate":null,"startPage":37,"volume":43,"footnoteNumber":14,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-15","url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.06416","name":"Advancing AI Negotiations: New Theory and Evidence from a Large-Scale Autonomous Negotiations Competition","authors":[{"name":"M. Vaccaro et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"arxiv.org","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":15,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-04-4-1-16","url":"https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.5398","name":"Exploring the Complexities of Negotiation: Strategies for Successful Intra- and Inter-Team Negotiation in Organizations","authors":[{"name":"M. 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However, important limitations and potential pitfalls remain. Current conflict models have limited ability to make causal inferences and are sometimes informed by outdated data-gathering.\n\nEven more serious is the possibility that predictive models can be self-fulfilling or self-defeating. For example, a prediction of war could cause local populations to flee, raising tensions that themselves trigger conflict. Also, care is needed in defining peace and ensuring that “peaceful” outcomes make a difference to the lives of real people such as refugees and those who have experienced trauma. 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