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Today’s familiar “classical” machines store and process information encoded as the binary digits (bits) “0” or “1”. Quantum bits (or qubits) can not only be states 0 and 1 but can also exist in “superposition states”, where the bit can be both 0 and 1 until observed. Leveraging quantum superposition and quantum entanglement, qubits can perform computational routines that are not possible on classical machines.\n\nQubits must be isolated from the large-scale “classical” world, otherwise the sub-atomic quantum properties that give them their unique powers are overwhelmed by classical noise. The result is errors in the computations that are extremely difficult to contain. Nonetheless, progress in isolation, noise mitigation and error correction appears to be accelerating, and useful quantum computing that outperforms what is reasonable and possible on a classical computer could be achieved within the next five years.[5](/citation/2025-01-1-2-5/)\n\nIn order to fulfil all of their potential as currently understood, it is likely that quantum computers will need to operate with hundreds of thousands of “physical” qubits (for information processing, these are grouped into structures known as “logical” qubits). However, useful computations are possible with far fewer qubits. This is partly because quantum computers will not simply replace or supersede classical machines, but will provide a novel set of capabilities that can supplement classical capabilities in a hybrid quantum-classical setup.\n\nApplications are diverse, but one extremely promising area is quantum simulation. Because they follow the same rules as atoms and molecules, quantum computers can operate as controllable demonstrators of what is possible within physical materials. This is why they will be so useful for tasks such as innovation in battery technology[6](/citation/2025-01-1-2-6/) and drug design for medical intervention.[7](/citation/2025-01-1-2-7/) Another much-publicised task is decryption. Quantum computers pose a threat to many of today’s cryptographic protocols, whose security relies on mathematical routines that are inaccessible only to classical computation.[8](/citation/2025-01-1-2-8/) Because the mathematical routines followed by quantum computers are fundamentally different, this security is compromised by the existence of suitably powerful quantum processors that can run a computation known as Shor’s algorithm. This is why a number of governments around the world are now investing heavily in “post-quantum” cryptography.[9](/citation/2025-01-1-2-9/)\n\n**KEY TAKEAWAYS**\n\nAfter more than 40 years in development, quantum computing is coming of age, and looks likely to become a multi-billion-dollar industry over the next couple of decades. Though progress has been faster than expected, **Hardware development** remains a challenge, and there is still no consensus over which of the many hardware approaches will eventually achieve scaleable fault-tolerant quantum computation. Similarly, **Algorithm design** is still in its early stages, and the number and range of applications that are uniquely suited to quantum computing remain small. Because noise-inducing disturbances of any kind are a fundamental obstacle to quantum computing, a significant effort is being made in the field of **Quantum error correction and noise mitigation**. Here too, there is reason for optimism, as implementations are growing in complexity. Implementations of **Near-term quantum computing** are achieving not only proofs of principle but also rudimentary — and promising — advances in areas such as battery development and cancer treatment.\n\n"},"intro":{"text":"When information is stored in the physical states of objects whose behaviour is governed by the laws of quantum physics, new and powerful forms of information-processing become possible. Suitably realised and managed, this creates novel computational capabilities that have the potential to significantly impact sectors as diverse as finance,[1](/citation/2025-01-1-2-1/) materials science,[2](/citation/2025-01-1-2-2/)cryptography[3](/citation/2025-01-1-2-3/) and drug discovery.[4](/citation/2025-01-1-2-4/)"},"anticipatoryImpact":{"text":"Three fundamental questions guide GESDA’s mission and drive its work: Who are we, as humans? How can we all live together? How can we ensure the well-being of humankind and the sustainable future of our planet? We asked researchers from the field to anticipate what impact future breakthroughs could have on each of these dimensions. This wheel summarises their opinions when considering each of these questions, with a higher score indicating high anticipated impact, and vice versa.\n\n* Anticipated impact on who we are as humans\n* Anticipated impact on how we will all live together\n* Anticipated impact on the well-being of humankind and sustainable future of our planet"},"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aad2","value":"0.495","numericValue":0.495,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}},{"id":"68a683950ac1330579fd785b","value":"0.5533","numericValue":0.5533,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"editions":[{"id":"66ab1bb636a8f2f336a557bf","name":"2024","slug":"2024","numericValue":2024},{"id":"684951c963371e51d83bdf31","name":"2025","slug":"2025","numericValue":2025}],"anticipatoryImpactImage":{"image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/psp-pl-1-25-1-2_image__PSP-PL1_25_1.2_zdwutd","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760069684/gesda-platform/image-asset/psp-pl-1-25-1-2_image__PSP-PL1_25_1.2_zdwutd.webp"}},"embeds":{"citations":[{"id":"691a77ecc0043bba84a9da37","slug":"2025-01-1-2-1","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.revip.2019.100028","name":"Quantum computing for finance: Overview and prospects","authors":[{"id":"691a77ecc0043bba84a9da35","name":"R. 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Maniscalco et al.","slug":"s-maniscalco-et-al"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Arxiv.org","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":7,"year":null},{"id":"691a77efc0043bba84a9da4f","slug":"2025-01-1-2-8","url":"https://doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.5340","name":"The future has arrived for securing confidential data","authors":[{"id":"66f4d31e09a10d3d0e1489ba","name":"D. 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These are the areas that also require more internationally coordinated action to realise future opportunities, driving the high Anticipation Potential score of this field."},"color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993","darkValue":"#4a2851","veryDarkValue":"#2a172e"},"banner":{"id":"6a922f359d83c3b6c1485077","name":"\"Gilded with Science\" by Nicolai Taufertshöfer, Paul Scherrer Institute - PSI","description":{"text":"\"Gilded with Science\" by Nicolai Taufertshöfer, Paul Scherrer Institute - PSI"},"image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/banner/gilded-with-science-by-nicolai-taufertshofer-paul-scherrer-institute-psi-1_image__54451865673_8209073baf_w_v1hvw7","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1787965231/gesda-platform/banner/gilded-with-science-by-nicolai-taufertshofer-paul-scherrer-institute-psi-1_image__54451865673_8209073baf_w_v1hvw7.jpg","thumbnails":{"mainBanner":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_1440/v1787965231/gesda-platform/banner/gilded-with-science-by-nicolai-taufertshofer-paul-scherrer-institute-psi-1_image__54451865673_8209073baf_w_v1hvw7.jpg","url2x":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_2880/v1787965231/gesda-platform/banner/gilded-with-science-by-nicolai-taufertshofer-paul-scherrer-institute-psi-1_image__54451865673_8209073baf_w_v1hvw7.jpg"}}}},"chartImage":{"id":"65c55cee9e947c438698a95b","slug":"chart-1-2-quantum-technologies","image":{"id":"image_gesda-22/image-asset/chart-1-2-quantum-technologies_image__TRR-1_2-TBC-01","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1668986364/gesda-22/image-asset/chart-1-2-quantum-technologies_image__TRR-1_2-TBC-01.png","url2x":null}},"citations":[{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Journal","slug":"2025-01-1-2-1","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.revip.2019.100028","name":"Quantum computing for finance: Overview and prospects","authors":[{"id":"691a77ecc0043bba84a9da35","name":"R. 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Kramer","slug":"d-kramer"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Physics Today","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":8,"year":null},{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Web page","slug":"2025-01-1-2-9","url":"https://csrc.nist.gov/projects/post-quantum-cryptography","name":"Post-quantum cryptography","authors":[{"id":"66f4d43c09a10d3d0e1492a0","name":"NIST Computer Security Resource Center","slug":"nist-computer-security-resource-center"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"nist.gov","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":9,"year":null}],"subTopics":[{"id":"65c55d4f9e947c438698b699","name":"Hardware development","path":"/sub-topics/hardware-development","outlineNumber":"1.2.1","slug":"hardware-development","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","value":"#966993"},"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7bb","slug":"quantum-computing","path":"/topics/quantum-computing"},"intro":{"text":"Because quantum computing is most useful at scale, it is important that the qubits are available in large numbers, connected to each other in low-noise (and thus low-error) configurations. A range of hardware approaches exist: superconducting qubits; neutral atoms; trapped ions; photonics implementations; spins-in-silicon; diamond nitrogen-vacancy centres and several more. There is also a range of architectures: some are based on digital logic gates, others are analogue implementations. All of them have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the envisaged application. As yet, there is no consensus on which approach, or approaches, will ultimately achieve useful quantum computing that goes beyond what is classically possible. The era of useful quantum computing will likely see a wide-ranging set of options used, with each one suited to different kinds of tasks, running algorithms designed to take advantage of the hardware’s specific features and capabilities."},"description":{"text":"There is currently no metric by which the various hardware approaches can be compared, but many of them are now sufficiently advanced to allow on-site or remote access (via the cloud) to interested parties. This has created a positive feedback regime, where users are contributing to design and performance improvements. However, the machines and design principles that currently exist are likely to be only a bridge to better future approaches, so there are good scientific and economic reasons for holding off on scaling up many of the current systems. However, there are plans to deliver a fault-tolerant superconducting quantum computer capable of executing 100 million quantum gates on 200 logical qubits by 2029.[10](/citation/2025-01-1-2-10/) This would be a tangible benchmark for scalable quantum advantage.\n"},"anticipationScores":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate: \n\n1. The *uncertainty* related to future science breakthroughs in the field\n2. The *transformative* *effect* anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society\n3. The *scope for action* in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs. \n\nThis chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the *Anticipation Potential* for the topic. See [methodology](/science-anticipation/methodology) for more information."},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"68e8915863d1c853e9788ba6","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/1-2-1-sub-anti-2026_image__1.2.1_sub_anti_2026_afegao","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760072004/gesda-platform/image-asset/1-2-1-sub-anti-2026_image__1.2.1_sub_anti_2026_afegao.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a74b","name":"1.2.1 - 25-year horizon","slug":"1-2-1-25-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"The million-logical-qubit era arrives"},"description":{"text":"Processors that incorporate millions of logical qubits are routinely available, accessible via cloud services. Hardware development focusses in on a relatively small number of the most successful technologies, with “losers” dropping out of the running."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a74a","name":"1.2.1 - 10-year horizon","slug":"1-2-1-10-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Quantum advantage is widely accepted\n"},"description":{"text":"Qubit counts on superconducting processors reach many hundreds of thousands, allowing the useful implementation of quantum algorithms able to solve complex problems and generate business value. The performance of quantum-computing hardware drives the development of better high-performance classical computing.\n"},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a749","name":"1.2.1 - 5-year horizon","slug":"1-2-1-5-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Access to quantum processors improves"},"description":{"text":"Useful algorithms run on hundreds of fault-tolerant logical qubits. More hardware originators offer access to end users, creating co-design opportunities and further accelerating innovation. Europe’s integration of quantum computing into high-performance classical-computing centres leads to new application ideas. The drive to improve quantum-computing hardware creates secondary benefits by further stimulating innovation and demand in classical control electronics, laser systems and other technologies.\n"},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aacf","value":"0.534","numericValue":0.534,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}},{"id":"68edd2b2af9e6d6d63270c09","value":"0.560","numericValue":0.56,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2025-01-1-2-10","url":"https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/large-scale-ftqc","name":"How IBM will build the world's first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer","authors":[{"name":"R. Mandelbaum et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":null,"accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":10,"year":null}],"imageAssets":[]}},{"id":"65c55d4f9e947c438698b69a","name":"Algorithm design","path":"/sub-topics/algorithm-design","outlineNumber":"1.2.2","slug":"algorithm-design","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","value":"#966993"},"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7bb","slug":"quantum-computing","path":"/topics/quantum-computing"},"intro":{"text":"Software for quantum computing is evolving along with the hardware. At present, there are relatively few algorithms that will make the quantum computing era truly revolutionary. But as hardware becomes more accessible, co-design between hardware and algorithm designers is likely to change that."},"description":{"text":"Already of interest is the use of quantum computers to perform quantum simulation. One example is calculating the quantum states of molecules involved in chemical energy storage, which will improve battery technology. Similarly, the details of various chemical reactions involved in the efficacy of pharmaceutical drugs are beyond the capabilities of classical computing, but may be achievable on quantum computers with relatively few (perhaps around 100) physical qubits. Research is already approaching relevance, with large-scale chemistry simulations running on 70+ qubits, and useful hybrid quantum-classical approaches such as Algorithmiq’s “Majorana Propagation”, which aims to ensure that future quantum computations will be relevant, accurate and scalable.[11](/citation/2025-01-1-2-11/)\n\nOther healthcare and life-science applications are also envisaged.[12](/citation/2025-01-1-2-12/) Many quantum algorithms for quantum simulations use both quantum computers and classical ones in an integrated manner. This is because only part of a very complex molecular simulation benefits from quantum algorithms; the rest of it can be performed by conventional simulation methods, including machine-learning techniques. This framework is known as hybrid quantum computing and it is considered nowadays the only path to scalability.\n\nThere is also increasing interest in using quantum computers to assist machine-learning algorithms[13](/citation/2025-01-1-2-13/) and financial modelling.[14](/citation/2025-01-1-2-14/) Similarly, logistics applications, such as routing and scheduling, may benefit from the advantages offered by quantum search algorithms. As well as mathematically rigorous algorithm design, there is scope for heuristics, where quantum-computing advantages can be achieved through trial-and-error approaches."},"anticipationScores":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate: \n\n1. The *uncertainty* related to future science breakthroughs in the field\n2. The *transformative* *effect* anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society\n3. The *scope for action* in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs. \n\nThis chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the *Anticipation Potential* for the topic. See [methodology](/science-anticipation/methodology) for more information."},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"68e89dad63d1c853e9788c75","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/1-2-2-sub-anti-2026_image__1.2.2_sub_anti_2026_fl0n2l","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760075168/gesda-platform/image-asset/1-2-2-sub-anti-2026_image__1.2.2_sub_anti_2026_fl0n2l.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a74e","name":"1.2.2 - 25-year horizon","slug":"1-2-2-25-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Medical quantum computing algorithms proliferate"},"description":{"text":"Medical, pharmaceutical and machine-learning applications proliferate, with algorithm design benefitting from the ever-growing capabilities of processors. Significant numbers of financial institutions boast quantum-computing divisions that seek to leverage quantum advantage in their sector."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a74d","name":"1.2.2 - 10-year horizon","slug":"1-2-2-10-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Quantum chemistry comes of age"},"description":{"text":"Implementations of chemistry algorithms on large-scale processors are changing materials science and enabling previously incalculable tasks. Breakthroughs in high-energy physics, stimulated by quantum algorithms that simulate subatomic particles, are achieved."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a74c","name":"1.2.2 - 5-year horizon","slug":"1-2-2-5-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Niche algorithms provide proof of principle"},"description":{"text":"The small scale of available quantum computers is reflected in the limited ambitions of algorithm designers. However, a drive for implementable algorithms, combined with increasingly powerful error-mitigation methods, creates a wave of niche useful applications whose success encourages further search for areas where quantum computing provides a useful resource."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aad0","value":"0.538","numericValue":0.538,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}},{"id":"68edd2eeaf9e6d6d63270c1a","value":"0.590","numericValue":0.59,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2025-01-1-2-11","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.18939","name":"Simulation of Fermionic circuits using Majorana Propagation","authors":[{"name":"A. 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Herman et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nat Rev Phys","accessDate":null,"startPage":450,"volume":5,"footnoteNumber":14,"year":null}],"imageAssets":[]}},{"id":"65c55d4f9e947c438698b69c","name":"Quantum error correction and noise mitigation","path":"/sub-topics/quantum-error-correction-and-noise-mitigation","outlineNumber":"1.2.3","slug":"quantum-error-correction-and-noise-mitigation","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","value":"#966993"},"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7bb","slug":"quantum-computing","path":"/topics/quantum-computing"},"intro":{"text":"The single most difficult challenge facing quantum computing is the problem of noise. External input of any kind, whether it comes from heat, mechanical vibrations, electrical or magnetic interference from surrounding circuits, or any other source, has the potential to cause “decoherence”, which alters the quantum state held in the qubits, instigating errors or even unrecoverable halts in the computation."},"description":{"text":"Researchers have long planned to integrate quantum error correction (QEC) resources into their quantum processors.[13](/citation/2025-01-1-2-13/)Theoretical research indicates that holding the bit in a network of qubits designed to detect and correct errors as they arise can significantly reduce the chances of a computation going awry. Examples include the surface code[14](/citation/2025-01-1-2-14/) and the low density parity code (LDPC).[15](/citation/2025-01-1-2-15/) Though this increases the required number of qubits, research in this area has uncovered ways in which this overhead can be reduced.[16](/citation/2025-01-1-2-16/)\n\nTo avoid the overhead of error correction, some other techniques have been effective for NISQ devices. These include the implementations of “error suppression”, which decreases the errors created in hardware operations, and “error mitigation” routines that inspect circuit operation and inject “inverted” noise to clean up qubit states while a computation is ongoing.[17](/citation/2025-01-1-2-17/) [18](/citation/2025-01-1-2-18/) Other recent error mitigation methods deal with noise fully in post-processing, that is after the readout of quantum computers, and have been proven to be optimal.[19](/citation/2025-01-1-2-19/) [20](/citation/2025-01-1-2-20/) Noise-reduction techniques applied to the classical electronics used to control the circuit have also proved to be useful. These can reconfigure the electronics’ settings and the signals applied so that the information held in qubits is better protected. "},"anticipationScores":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate: \n\n1. The *uncertainty* related to future science breakthroughs in the field\n2. The *transformative* *effect* anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society\n3. The *scope for action* in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs. \n\nThis chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the *Anticipation Potential* for the topic. See [methodology](/science-anticipation/methodology) for more information."},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"68e8965263d1c853e9788bf7","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/1-2-3-sub-anti-2026_image__1.2.3_sub_anti_2026_rm156l","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760073283/gesda-platform/image-asset/1-2-3-sub-anti-2026_image__1.2.3_sub_anti_2026_rm156l.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a751","name":"1.2.3 - 25-year horizon","slug":"1-2-3-25-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Qubit availability makes QEC easy"},"description":{"text":"Qubits are available at scale and at low cost, enabling full-scale quantum computers to use quantum error-correction routines as standard. Hybrid classical-quantum computing is the standard approach, and noise mitigation and reduction techniques developed for classical circuits remain an important component of the hybrid processor."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a750","name":"1.2.3 - 10-year horizon","slug":"1-2-3-10-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Error correction is routine"},"description":{"text":"The number of provably effective quantum error-correction routines grows, and research makes their implementation ever more efficient. Error-mitigation techniques are integrated with error correction in commercial quantum computing."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a74f","name":"1.2.3 - 5-year horizon","slug":"1-2-3-5-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"QEC becomes significantly more efficient"},"description":{"text":"The number of qubits required for implementing effective error-correction routines continues to shrink. Qubits themselves are developed to be less noisy. Noise-control techniques reduce the estimates of when a useful large-scale quantum computer will become available. Hardware and algorithm designers work alongside error-correction specialists to improve co-design outcomes."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aae2","value":"0.452","numericValue":0.452,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}},{"id":"68edd31baf9e6d6d63270c29","value":"0.550","numericValue":0.55,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2025-01-1-2-13","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43957-x","name":"Towards provably efficient quantum algorithms for large-scale machine-learning models","authors":[{"name":"J. 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Yamamoto et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Arxiv.org","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":19,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-01-1-2-20","url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.11822","name":"Fault-tolerant quantum computation with a neutral atom processor","authors":[{"name":"B.W. Reichardt et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Arxiv.org","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":20,"year":null}],"imageAssets":[]}},{"id":"65c55d4f9e947c438698b69b","name":"Near-term applications of quantum computing ","path":"/sub-topics/near-term-applications-of-quantum-computing","outlineNumber":"1.2.4","slug":"near-term-applications-of-quantum-computing","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","value":"#966993"},"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7bb","slug":"quantum-computing","path":"/topics/quantum-computing"},"intro":{"text":"For a number of years now, quantum-computing researchers have spoken of computing with “noisy, intermediate-scale quantum” (NISQ) processors.[21](/citation/2025-01-1-2-21/) These processors are not able to perform applications such as those using Shor’s algorithm, which requires large-scale, fault-tolerant, error-corrected quantum computers. However, there may be near-term applications where small, noise-affected machines can still perform useful tasks, , especially given the growing number of noise-mitigation solutions."},"description":{"text":"One area of imminent application is in light-activated cancer drugs.[22](/citation/2025-01-1-2-22/) Quantum computation allows researchers to design drugs with molecular energy states that allow them to be activated with particular wavelengths of light, which makes the process of generating cancer-killing reactive oxygen species less harmful to the patient than can be achieved using classical means.\n\nNear-term quantum computers could also speed up readouts from quantum sensors and machine-learning-based tasks,[23](/citation/2025-01-1-2-23/) and simulate realistic models of materials, thanks to recent understanding of measures that can reduce the resources required by several orders of magnitude.[24](/citation/2025-01-1-2-24/) XPRIZE Quantum Applications, a competition designed to generate algorithms that can help solve current real-world challenges, may also stimulate progress.[25](/citation/2025-01-1-2-25/) (GESDA is the presenting sponsor of this initiative.)"},"anticipationScores":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate: \n\n1. The *uncertainty* related to future science breakthroughs in the field\n2. The *transformative* *effect* anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society\n3. The *scope for action* in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs. \n\nThis chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the *Anticipation Potential* for the topic. See [methodology](/science-anticipation/methodology) for more information."},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"68e8953563d1c853e9788be2","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/1-2-4-sub-anti-2026_image__1.2.4_sub_anti_2026_v8mfkn","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760072995/gesda-platform/image-asset/1-2-4-sub-anti-2026_image__1.2.4_sub_anti_2026_v8mfkn.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a754","name":"1.2.4 - 25-year horizon","slug":"1-2-4-25-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"NISQ machines become learning tools"},"description":{"text":"NISQ processors are largely superseded for computing purposes, but remain useful for workforce training and algorithm development."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a753","name":"1.2.4 - 10-year horizon","slug":"1-2-4-10-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"New application ideas flood the market"},"description":{"text":"Algorithms designed for NISQ processors are adapted to improve the performance of larger-scale quantum computers. Interest stimulated by initiatives such as the XPRIZE creates a flood of new application ideas, many of which have positive impacts in niche areas."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a752","name":"1.2.4 - 5-year horizon","slug":"1-2-4-5-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Niche applications make small-scale quantum computing useful"},"description":{"text":"Bespoke algorithms running on small, noisy quantum processors radically improve resolution of sensing, and are also used for materials and chemistry applications. NISQ processors running in academic labs provide useful insights into noise and other fundamental issues in quantum computing. International trade and collaboration restrictions, imposed due to unfounded fears about decryption capabilities, stifle progress in this era."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a322","name":"Purple","slug":"purple","value":"#966993"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aad1","value":"0.456","numericValue":0.456,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}},{"id":"68edd347af9e6d6d63270c38","value":"0.520","numericValue":0.52,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2025-01-1-2-21","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-023-02042-2Z.","name":"Probabilistic error cancellation with sparse Pauli–Lindblad models on noisy quantum processors","authors":[{"name":"E. 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