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Automated sensor arrays are enabling us to trace systems of currents and nutrient flows in unprecedented detail. Deep-sea exploration is revealing how the ocean interacts with the solid Earth, notably in hydrothermal vents, where mineral-rich water spews up from beneath the seabed. The ocean is becoming understood as a vast engine of currents and chemical flows that is inextricably linked to wider Earth-system processes such as plate tectonics and the climate.[2](/citation/2025-03-3-5-2/)\n\nThis understanding is crucial because of the sheer power of the ocean. As global average temperatures continue to rise, the ocean is responding in complex ways: sea ice is melting and retreating, currents are slowing and shifting their paths, and stored heat is moving. Our growing understanding of oceanography will enable us to identify the most significant and pressing risks, and to devise ways to mitigate them.\n\nLikewise, our knowledge of marine biodiversity is progressing rapidly, driven by technologies like eDNA and metagenomics. At the same time, our understanding of marine ecosystems and the services they provide is also increasing, enabled by uncrewed vehicles and other tools for large-scale ocean observation.\n\nThis knowledge is crucial to the well-being and prosperity of society. We already know that non-sustainable human activities pose multiple threats to key marine ecosystems in the deep sea and in coral reefs, seagrass meadows and the Arctic sea-ice biota. Our improving understanding of those ecosystems offers an opportunity to find better ways to conserve them — and thus to protect the natural services they provide, ranging from food provision to climate regulation.\n\nThe ocean can also offer opportunities, when managed sustainably. While the impact of large-scale industrial implementations is not yet understood and thus must be developed with great caution, the emerging “blue economy” sectors may provide renewable energies, store carbon (marine carbon-dioxide removal or mCDR), provide food or harvest and utilise marine genetic resources.\n\n**KEY TAKEAWAYS**\n\nThe ocean is a major and vital part of the planet’s ecosystem, generating 50 per cent of oxygen, absorbing 90 per cent of excess heat and capturing 25 per cent of carbon dioxide. However, much of the detail of its characteristics, contributions and changing properties are not yet understood. The field of **Oceanography** aims to inform our understanding of the physics and chemistry of the ocean, such as currents, helping us to model and forecast the effects of a changing climate and the potential for tipping points to cause major change. Researchers are still gathering new information on **Ocean biodiversity**, including microbial marine life and plants and animals living in the water and on and in the seafloor, of which 90 per cent of species are yet to be discovered. Research is also uncovering the details of **Ecosystem function**. The services that the diverse deep-sea ecosystems, as well as plankton, seagrass and corals in shallower seas, bring to the ocean system remain largely unexplored, and further insights will be vital to conservation efforts. This information is required to enhance our understanding of **Human impact and ocean stewardship** to facilitate better outcomes for the ocean environment and dependent life in the face of climate change and other challenges."},"intro":{"text":"Our growing understanding of the ocean offers enormous opportunities, both for the prevention of harm and the enabling of benefits. By better understanding marine ecosystems, we can do a better job of safeguarding them from human impacts like climate change and pollution. We can also develop a sustainable bioeconomy based on marine resources.[1](/citation/2025-03-3-5-1/)"},"anticipatoryImpact":{"text":"Three fundamental questions guide GESDA’s mission and drive its work: Who are we, as humans? How can we all live together? How can we ensure the well-being of humankind and the sustainable future of our planet? We asked researchers from the field to anticipate what impact future breakthroughs could have on each of these dimensions. This wheel summarises their opinions when considering each of these questions, with a higher score indicating high anticipated impact, and vice versa.\n\n* Anticipated impact on who we are as humans\n* Anticipated impact on how we will all live together\n* Anticipated impact on the well-being of humankind and sustainable future of our planet"},"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aac0","value":"0.567","numericValue":0.567,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}},{"id":"68a68a250ac1330579fd78e1","value":"0.6408","numericValue":0.6408,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"editions":[{"id":"66ab1bb636a8f2f336a557bf","name":"2024","slug":"2024","numericValue":2024},{"id":"684951c963371e51d83bdf31","name":"2025","slug":"2025","numericValue":2025}],"anticipatoryImpactImage":{"image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/psp-pl-3-25-3-5_image__PSP-PL3_25_3.5_rytey4","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760070350/gesda-platform/image-asset/psp-pl-3-25-3-5_image__PSP-PL3_25_3.5_rytey4.webp"}},"embeds":{"citations":[{"id":"691a7975c0043bba84a9e4d3","slug":"2025-03-3-5-1","url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14928917","name":"Deep Sea Research and Management Needs","authors":[{"id":"691a7975c0043bba84a9e4d1","name":"S.G. Sander et al.","slug":"s-g-sander-et-al"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Future Science Brief N°. 12 of the European Marine Board","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":1,"year":null},{"id":"691a7975c0043bba84a9e4d5","slug":"2025-03-3-5-2","url":"https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/441190/blue-machine-by-czerski-helen/9781804991961","name":"Blue Machine: How the ocean shapes our world","authors":[{"id":"66f4d3f009a10d3d0e149042","name":"H. Czerski","slug":"h-czerski"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Torva","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":2,"year":null}],"imageAssets":[]},"surveyObservations":{"text":"Ocean Science is an area with an overall high Anticipation Potential score. The transformational effects of all domains surveyed and the need for international coordinated action are both very high, especially for **Ocean biodiversity** and **Human impact and ocean stewardship**. Advances in research on **Ecosystems functions** are more uncertain, and the field should take 12 years to reach maturity, contributing to a higher Anticipation Potential score."},"color":{"id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B","darkValue":"#066152","veryDarkValue":"#02201b"},"banner":{"id":"6a924bf49d83c3b6c148557a","name":"\"Clownfish hide and seek\" by Gabriele Sciamma, University of Neuchâtel","description":{"text":"\"Clownfish hide and seek\" by Gabriele Sciamma, University of Neuchâtel"},"image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/banner/clownfish-hide-and-seek-by-gabriele-sciamma-university-of-neuchatel_image__22Clownfish_hide_and_seek_22_by_Gabriele_Sciamma_University_of_Neuchâtel_f9hhrs","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1787972586/gesda-platform/banner/clownfish-hide-and-seek-by-gabriele-sciamma-university-of-neuchatel_image__22Clownfish_hide_and_seek_22_by_Gabriele_Sciamma_University_of_Neucha%CC%82tel_f9hhrs.jpg","thumbnails":{"mainBanner":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_1440/v1787972586/gesda-platform/banner/clownfish-hide-and-seek-by-gabriele-sciamma-university-of-neuchatel_image__22Clownfish_hide_and_seek_22_by_Gabriele_Sciamma_University_of_Neucha%CC%82tel_f9hhrs.jpg","url2x":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_2880/v1787972586/gesda-platform/banner/clownfish-hide-and-seek-by-gabriele-sciamma-university-of-neuchatel_image__22Clownfish_hide_and_seek_22_by_Gabriele_Sciamma_University_of_Neucha%CC%82tel_f9hhrs.jpg"}}}},"chartImage":{"id":"65c55cee9e947c438698a966","slug":"chart-3-5-ocean-stewardship","image":{"id":"image_gesda-22/image-asset/chart-3-5-ocean-stewardship_image__TRR-3_5-TBC-01","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1668986393/gesda-22/image-asset/chart-3-5-ocean-stewardship_image__TRR-3_5-TBC-01.png","url2x":null}},"citations":[{"__typename":"Platform_Citation","_schema":{"label":"Citation","pluralLabel":"Citations"},"typeLabel":"Report","slug":"2025-03-3-5-1","url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14928917","name":"Deep Sea Research and Management Needs","authors":[{"id":"691a7975c0043bba84a9e4d1","name":"S.G. 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A major driver has been remote-sensing technologies for sea-surface monitoring, notably the Argo network of nearly 4000 robotic floats.[3](/citation/2025-03-3-5-3/) Researchers can now follow floating debris such as marine plastic pollution across oceans.[4](/citation/2025-03-3-5-4/)"},"description":{"text":"For the first time we can track long-term changes. More heat is being transported into northerly waters, for instance.[5](/citation/2025-03-3-5-5/) Currents are changing,[6](/citation/2025-03-3-5-6/) with some slowing down or speeding up,[7](/citation/2025-03-3-5-7/) and vast “gyres” shifting position.[8](/citation/2025-03-3-5-8/) Ocean chemistry is also in flux: dangerous low-oxygen zones are growing.[9](/citation/2025-03-3-5-9/) Researchers are now watching for evidence of tipping points,[10](/citation/2025-03-3-5-10/),[11](/citation/2025-03-3-5-11/) such as a slowdown or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC),[12](/citation/2025-03-3-5-12/) although timescales remain difficult to determine.\n\nThere is an urgent need for more data on the physical characteristics of the ocean, especially in the deep sea, which is constrained by gaps in our ability to gather data, whether using survey vessels, moored buoys, Argo floats or instruments tied to animals. If this situation can be improved by more scientific research as well as acquisition of data from commercial and military vessels (and through geochemical proxies that provide historical data, sometimes over million-year timescales), it may be possible (though this is still a subject of debate) to create a “digital twin” of the global ocean that is detailed enough to be useful in oceanographic prediction and intervention modelling.[13](/citation/2025-03-3-5-13/) "},"anticipationScores":{"text":""},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"68e890c563d1c853e9788b9a","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/3-5-1-sub-anti-2026_image__3.5.1_sub_anti_2026_o5ovee","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760071862/gesda-platform/image-asset/3-5-1-sub-anti-2026_image__3.5.1_sub_anti_2026_o5ovee.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b046b31dec39db691bdcfc","name":"Ocean history becomes clearer","slug":"ocean-history-becomes-clearer","intro":{"text":"Ocean history becomes clearer"},"description":{"text":"Improved palaeoceanographic proxies reveal how ocean behaviours have changed over millions of years. Research gains a better understanding of the physical mechanisms driving changes in the ocean, for example by analysing how freshwater inputs in the North Atlantic affect ocean circulation. The behaviour of the ocean is analysed under a more complex range of climate-change scenarios, including those with overshoots and with net-zero climate actions."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b046cb1dec39db691bdd01","name":"Remote sensing improves","slug":"remote-sensing-improves","intro":{"text":"Remote sensing improves"},"description":{"text":"Cheaper and more efficient remote sensing enables detailed monitoring of ocean-surface currents, temperature and other factors throughout the world ocean. Long-term continuous deep-sea monitoring leads to improved understanding of the dominant forces driving change in the oceans.  New Earth-system models become available, enabling improved understanding of oceanographic processes such as carbon-dioxide exchange and saturation, and the stability of circulating-current patterns"},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b046ea1dec39db691bdd06","name":"Data provides capacity to forecast major changes","slug":"data-provides-capacity-to-forecast-major-changes","intro":{"text":"Data provides capacity to forecast major changes"},"description":{"text":"Combining data, modelling and physical understanding enables forecasting of major oceanic changes such as shifting currents and upwelling. Higher-resolution models resolve existing discrepancies between models and observations. Observations until 2050 allow us to understand the ocean’s reaction to rapid climate change, for example determining the stability of the AMOC and how much it can weaken."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"68ede3f6af9e6d6d63270fe4","value":"0.590","numericValue":0.59,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2025-03-3-5-3","url":"https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-022521-102008","name":"Argo—Two Decades: Global Oceanography, Revolutionised","authors":[{"name":"G.C. Johnson et al"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Annual Review of Marine Science","accessDate":null,"startPage":379,"volume":14,"footnoteNumber":3,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-03-3-5-4","url":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7d","name":"The physical oceanography of the transport of floating marine debris","authors":[{"name":"E. van Sebille et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Environmental Research Letters","accessDate":null,"startPage":23003,"volume":15,"footnoteNumber":4,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-03-3-5-5","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00941-3","name":"Increased ocean heat transport into the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean over the period 1993–2016","authors":[{"name":"T. Tsubouchi et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nature Climate Change","accessDate":null,"startPage":21,"volume":11,"footnoteNumber":5,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-03-3-5-6","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01006-9","name":"Global changes in oceanic mesoscale currents over the satellite altimetry record","authors":[{"name":"J. Martínez-Moreno et al."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nature Climate Change","accessDate":null,"startPage":397,"volume":11,"footnoteNumber":6,"year":null},{"slug":"2025-03-3-5-7","url":"https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax7727","name":"Deep-reaching acceleration of global mean ocean circulation over the past two decades","authors":[{"name":"S. 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Indeed, projections indicate that, while mitigation could limit threats to surface biodiversity, deep-ocean biodiversity will face an unavoidable escalation in threat.[28](/citation/2025-03-3-5-28/) The ongoing threats to ocean biodiversity will limit the potential of marine genetic resource use."},"anticipationScores":{"text":""},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"68e89c6563d1c853e9788c5a","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/3-5-2-sub-anti-2026_image__3.5.2_sub_anti_2026_ydpael","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1760074840/gesda-platform/image-asset/3-5-2-sub-anti-2026_image__3.5.2_sub_anti_2026_ydpael.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b047c61dec39db691bdd24","name":"Monitoring improves assessment","slug":"monitoring-improves-assessment","intro":{"text":"Monitoring improves assessment"},"description":{"text":"More comprehensive and wide-ranging assessments of ocean biodiversity are made possible by a combination of monitoring techniques and implementation of environmental-impact assessments by more nations, including low- and middle-income countries. Improvements in remote tracking of animals enable mapping of long-distance migration routes and identification of key regions such as spawning grounds. eDNA can identify species in a biome. Imaging and acoustic monitoring can recognise large animals to species level. Automated image capture helps monitor species abundance. Research achieves more precise and accurate estimates of the number of species in the ocean."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b047e11dec39db691bdd29","name":"Biodiversity tracking aids conservation efforts","slug":"biodiversity-tracking-aids-conservation-efforts","intro":{"text":"Biodiversity tracking aids conservation efforts"},"description":{"text":"Multi-year studies enable tracking of biodiversity trends and inform conservation efforts to establish efficient marine protected areas. International capacity-building and knowledge-sharing programmes enable broader use of eDNA tools for biodiversity monitoring. Improved wet-lab methods and high-pressure aquaria enable more controlled studies of marine organisms and biochemistry, including chemical signalling. "},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"68b0482a1dec39db691bdd32","name":"Species-specific forecasting comes of age","slug":"species-specific-forecasting-comes-of-age","intro":{"text":"Species-specific forecasting comes of age"},"description":{"text":"Reliable forecasting allows predictions of which species will become invasive. Keystone species are identified, enabling protective measures. Reliable predictions of the chemicals an organism makes, and the roles it plays in its ecosystem, become possible, based primarily on its genome sequence. Humankind benefits from marine genetic resources through applications of biodiscovery of pharmaceutical compounds and from inspiration for novel materials and structural design."},"color":{"__typename":"Platform_Color","id":"65c55cbc9e947c438698a319","name":"Green","slug":"green","value":"#68AE9B"},"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"68ede411af9e6d6d63270fed","value":"0.610","numericValue":0.61,"year":2025,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2025-03-3-5-14","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0522-9","name":"The ocean genome and future prospects for conservation and equity","authors":[{"name":"R. 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