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    "result": {"data":{"platform":{"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7b0","slug":"earth-systems-modelling","name":"Earth Systems Modelling","path":"/topics/earth-systems-modelling","__typename":"Platform_Topic","created":"2021-07-26T04:52:51.00","published":null,"doiId":null,"outlineNumber":null,"trend":null,"description":{"text":"The concept of the Earth system can be traced to James Lovelock’s much-discussed Gaia hypothesis, which posited that all of Earth is a self-regulating whole. While aspects of Lovelock’s proposal remain controversial, the core notion has proved correct.\n\nAs an example, by including explicit models of the cryosphere, researchers can better predict the extent and speed of sea-level rise. In addition, the models must incorporate the effects of feedback loops, where small changes in one component can trigger effects in others, which then in turn alter the state of the first component, amplifying or diminishing the original change. The Earth-system paradigm has also led to the identification of “tipping elements”. These are components of the Earth system that can undergo effectively irreversible change given a sufficiently strong stimulus.\n\nEarth-system models that can handle these interactions are necessarily extremely complex. One key enabler is the development of ever-more-powerful supercomputers. However, a crucial task is to ground them in observations of real-world systems, and in process-oriented studies that capture the mechanisms of the Earth system. This requires significant increases in monitoring capacity, using both terrestrial and space-based sensors. Strategic improvements in Earth remote sensing would bolster our understanding of the Earth system and ability to forecast societally relevant changes.\n\n**KEY TAKEAWAYS**\n\nEarth-systems models are a set of extremely complex models of the various interacting systems operating on our planet. They provide a means of anticipating future trends and events. However, their complexity means that the models are far from perfect, despite the powerful supercomputing resources now available to run them. One of the challenges lies in the **Modelling of feedbacks in the Earth system**. An example is the increased global warming through absorption of solar radiation that results from receding sea ice — the recession itself is a result of global warming. Such feedbacks may eventually lead to “tipping elements”, such as the potential for the Amazon rainforest to be suddenly transformed into a savannah. **Tipping element modelling and forecasting** is also a significant challenge. It is, however, a vital one to address, since uncertainties here leave our models exposed to sudden and potentially catastrophic deviation from real-world scenarios. Also significant are the **Interactions between Earth systems**. Understanding the links between climate change and biodiversity loss, for example, can assist in the timely and effective management of habitats. While all the computational models of Earth’s systems have flaws, these can be mitigated in part by **Model intercomparison**. This can improve model reliability by comparing the performance of ensembles of models and weighting their contributions accordingly."},"intro":{"text":"Researchers seeking to understand environmental shifts such as climate change, have incorporated ever more components of the Earth system into their models. This is because of a growing understanding of the significance of the interactions between elements of the Earth system: oceans, atmosphere, land, Arctic and Antarctic ice (the cryosphere) and biosphere."},"anticipatoryImpact":{"text":"Three fundamental questions guide GESDA’s mission and drive its work: Who are we, as humans? How can we all live together? How can we ensure the well-being of humankind and the sustainable future of our planet? We asked researchers from the field to anticipate what impact future breakthroughs could have on each of these dimensions. This wheel summarises their opinions when considering each of these questions, with a higher score indicating high anticipated impact, and vice versa.\n\n* Anticipated impact on who we are as humans\n* Anticipated impact on how we will all live together\n* Anticipated impact on the well-being of humankind and sustainable future of our planet"},"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698ab0f","value":"0.544","numericValue":0.544,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"editions":[{"id":"66ab1bb636a8f2f336a557bf","name":"2024","slug":"2024","numericValue":2024}],"anticipatoryImpactImage":{"image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/anticipatory-impact-chart-3-2-earth-systems-modelling-2024_image__3.2_bw2lyk","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1724642031/gesda-platform/image-asset/anticipatory-impact-chart-3-2-earth-systems-modelling-2024_image__3.2_bw2lyk.webp"}},"embeds":{"citations":[],"imageAssets":[]},"surveyObservations":{"text":"Digital models are already becoming an increasingly popular tool among both scientists and policymakers. Physical models have the highest potential for disruption, but the field's relative maturity has lowered anticipation scores. Socioeconomic models and progress in the integration and coupling of different types of models were deemed to be around 12 years from maturity and in need of collaborative, interdisciplinary research, suggesting they would benefit from particular focus in the coming years."},"color":null,"banner":{"id":"65c55ca69e947c4386989da4","name":"Banner - Topic 3.2","description":{"text":""},"image":{"id":"image_gesda-22/banner/banner-topic-3-2_image__3 Header","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1668981712/gesda-22/banner/banner-topic-3-2_image__3%20Header.jpg","thumbnails":{"mainBanner":{"url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_1440/v1668981712/gesda-22/banner/banner-topic-3-2_image__3%20Header.jpg","url2x":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/c_limit,w_2880/v1668981712/gesda-22/banner/banner-topic-3-2_image__3%20Header.jpg"}}}},"chartImage":{"id":"65c55cee9e947c438698a963","slug":"chart-3-2-world-simulation","image":{"id":"image_gesda-22/image-asset/chart-3-2-world-simulation_image__TRR-3_2-TBC-01","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1668986386/gesda-22/image-asset/chart-3-2-world-simulation_image__TRR-3_2-TBC-01.png","url2x":null}},"citations":[],"subTopics":[{"id":"65c55d4f9e947c438698b687","name":"Modelling of feedbacks in the Earth system","path":"/sub-topics/modelling-of-feedbacks-in-the-earth-system","outlineNumber":"3.2.1","slug":"modelling-of-feedbacks-in-the-earth-system","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":null,"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7b0","slug":"earth-systems-modelling","path":"/topics/earth-systems-modelling"},"intro":{"text":"Modelling Earth’s climate with any fidelity requires considering its interacting network of feedback loops. For example, rising temperatures are causing Arctic sea ice to shrink. This changes the planet’s reflectivity, or albedo: white ice reflects sunlight back into space, while dark blue seawater absorbs it. As a result, the retreating sea ice means Earth warms up even faster. Similarly, the warming that atmospheric CO[2](/citation/2025-03-3-2-2/) causes also puts water vapour into the atmosphere, itself a powerful greenhouse gas."},"description":{"text":"In recent years, there has been more concern about cloud feedbacks. High-resolution climate simulations show that low-lying stratocumulus clouds will break up in a warmer climate, reducing their shading effect and allowing for greater warming.[1](/citation/2024-03-3-2-1/) This is significant, because these clouds are common in the tropics, shading 20 per cent of low-latitude oceans.\n\nBetter modelling of such feedback mechanisms, especially through refinement against observational data, can help us understand these risks and improve the fidelity of our climate models. In recent years, for example, researchers have successfully reconstructed the history of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) going back over a century.[2](/citation/2024-03-3-2-2/) This means it is now possible to put observations of current AMOC changes into their long-term context — and this suggests that the AMOC is indeed slowing.[3](/citation/2024-03-3-2-3/) This may, in the near term, increase the overall warming at the surface.[4](/citation/2024-03-3-2-4/)\n\nModels also need to take more account of ecosystem feedbacks, such as those from the melting of permafrost (an event that could release large quantities of greenhouse gases, potentially accelerating and increasing the warming trend[5](/citation/2024-03-3-2-5/)), climate-induced human migration and coral bleaching, all of which can have feedback effects on climate systems."},"anticipationScores":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate: \n\n1. The *uncertainty* related to future science breakthroughs in the field\n2. The *transformative* *effect* anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society\n3. The *scope for action* in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs. \n\nThis chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the *Anticipation Potential* for the topic. See [methodology](/science-anticipation/methodology) for more information."},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"65c55cee9e947c438698a9da","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/ic-3-2-1-modelling-of-feedbacks-in-the-earth-system-2024_image__3.2.1_yqkrta","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1726449381/gesda-platform/image-asset/ic-3-2-1-modelling-of-feedbacks-in-the-earth-system-2024_image__3.2.1_yqkrta.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a7db","name":"3.2.1 - 25-year horizon","slug":"3-2-1-25-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"High-resolution modelling and exascale computing improves prediction"},"description":{"text":"Researchers achieve more explicit inclusion of complex feedback systems encompassing the biosphere, cryosphere and more highly resolved surface and atmospheric heterogeneity."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a7da","name":"3.2.1 - 10-year horizon","slug":"3-2-1-10-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Models include cloud influence"},"description":{"text":"Tighter constraints on process-level cloud feedbacks are incorporated into climate models. Researchers gain a better understanding of ENSO predictability."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a7d9","name":"3.2.1 - 5-year horizon","slug":"3-2-1-5-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Models’ uncertainty is reduced"},"description":{"text":"Improved climate models, checked against observational data, reduce the range of uncertainty on equilibrium climate sensitivity. We gain a better understanding of impacts of climate change on the* El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aaca","value":"0.523","numericValue":0.523,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2025-03-3-2-2","url":"https://www.iucnredlist.org/about/background-history","name":"Background & history","authors":[],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"IUCN Red List of Threatened Species","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":null,"footnoteNumber":2,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-1","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0310-1","name":"Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming","authors":[{"name":"T. Schneider"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nat. Geosci.","accessDate":null,"startPage":163,"volume":12,"footnoteNumber":1,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-2","url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093893","name":"120 years of AMOC variability reconstructed from observations using the Bernoulli inverse","authors":[{"name":"N. J. Fraser"},{"name":"S. A. Cunningham"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Geophysical Research Letters","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":48,"footnoteNumber":2,"year":2021},{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-3","url":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.642372","name":"An Overview of Ocean Climate Change Indicators: Sea Surface Temperature, Ocean Heat Content, Ocean pH, Dissolved Oxygen Concentration, Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Thickness and Volume, Sea Level and Strength of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation)","authors":[{"name":"G. Carlos"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Frontiers in Marine Science","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":8,"footnoteNumber":3,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-4","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0","name":"Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening","authors":[{"name":"R. Bonnet"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nat Commun","accessDate":null,"startPage":6108,"volume":12,"footnoteNumber":4,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-5","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3","name":"Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic","authors":[{"name":"K. R. Miner"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nat Rev Earth Environ","accessDate":null,"startPage":55,"volume":3,"footnoteNumber":5,"year":null}],"imageAssets":[]}},{"id":"65c55d4f9e947c438698b6b2","name":"Tipping element modelling and forecasting","path":"/sub-topics/tipping-element-modelling-and-forecasting","outlineNumber":"3.2.2","slug":"tipping-element-modelling-and-forecasting","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":null,"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7b0","slug":"earth-systems-modelling","path":"/topics/earth-systems-modelling"},"intro":{"text":"One of the most important outcomes of Earth Systems Modelling in recent years is the demonstration of various “tipping elements”, where sudden, irreversible — and undesirable — changes might occur with relatively small changes in particular climatic elements. Furthermore, in the last decade it has been postulated that the tipping elements could interact with one another, raising the possibility of a planet-wide domino effect."},"description":{"text":"In the cryosphere, one of the most immediate risks is to the Greenland ice sheet. Recent evidence suggests that this system could be near its tipping point, with about 7 metres of sea-level rise likely to ensue over the coming centuries.[6](/citation/2024-03-3-2-6/) However, as with all tipping points, limited real-world data combined with the weaknesses of current climate models leave a high degree of uncertainty over exactly how much of a “push” is required.\n\nModels also show that the Amazon rainforest can irreversibly “flip” from forest to savannah. This would be a catastrophic shift, accelerating climate change[7](/citation/2024-03-3-2-7/) and fuelling more warming.[8](/citation/2024-03-3-2-8/) The permafrost regions of the far north are also thought to be a tipping element and recent studies indicate this tipping point may be closer than thought.[9](/citation/2024-03-3-2-9/) Collapse of the permafrost will release large quantities of greenhouse gases, accelerating and increasing the warming trend.\n\nThe current generation of Earth-system models struggle to adequately resolve these tipping elements in many cases.[10](/citation/2024-03-3-2-10/) Some models omit them entirely, making the accurate inclusion of tipping elements an important focus for reducing the ambiguity of model-based climate predictions. The best-modelled tipping elements are those, like the Greenland ice sheet, that primarily depend on inanimate physical objects: tipping elements that include biosphere components, such as the Amazon, are a significantly bigger challenge and require substantial ground-truthing with observations."},"anticipationScores":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate: \n\n1. The *uncertainty* related to future science breakthroughs in the field\n2. The *transformative* *effect* anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society\n3. The *scope for action* in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs. \n\nThis chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the *Anticipation Potential* for the topic. See [methodology](/science-anticipation/methodology) for more information."},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"65c55cee9e947c438698a9db","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/ic-3-2-2-tipping-element-modelling-and-forecasting-2024_image__3.2.2_tt0rg4","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1726449436/gesda-platform/image-asset/ic-3-2-2-tipping-element-modelling-and-forecasting-2024_image__3.2.2_tt0rg4.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a7de","name":"3.2.2 - 25-year horizon","slug":"3-2-2-25-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Model-based monitoring of tipping-event warnings"},"description":{"text":"Earth-systems models are reliable enough, and sensor networks extensive enough, to use real-world data to check models and to make predictions about imminent ecosystem tipping events. Scientists achieve detailed global analyses and forecasts of species movements and ecosystem shifts."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a7dd","name":"3.2.2 - 10-year horizon","slug":"3-2-2-10-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"AI assists tipping-event analysis"},"description":{"text":"Scientists using AI-based analysis provide specification of the climatic limits in which the Amazon basin can retain a rainforest. Modelling identifies the West Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping point to a useful degree of precision, allowing it to be explicitly included in climate targets. Physiology studies reveal temperature-humidity limits for key domestic species like crops. "},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a7dc","name":"3.2.2 - 5-year horizon","slug":"3-2-2-5-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Permafrost influence is better understood"},"description":{"text":"Research in modelling achieves clarification of whether the permafrost is truly a tipping-point element or has a linear response. Tipping-element theory is refined through better mathematical modelling constrained by observational data, leading to a convergence of viewpoints on their nature and importance. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s history is reconstructed going back several centuries, clarifying whether it is undergoing a slowdown."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aa8a","value":"0.636","numericValue":0.636,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-6","url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118","name":"Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point.","authors":[{"name":"N. Boers"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"PNAS","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":118,"footnoteNumber":6,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-7","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02771-y","name":"21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions","authors":[{"name":"L. E.O.C."}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nat Commun","accessDate":null,"startPage":536,"volume":9,"footnoteNumber":7,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-8","url":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cfc","name":"CO2 emissions from forest degradation in Brazilian Amazon.","authors":[{"name":"T. Oliveira"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Environ. Res. Lett.","accessDate":null,"startPage":104035,"volume":15,"footnoteNumber":8,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-9","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3","name":"Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic","authors":[{"name":"K. R. Miner"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Nat Rev Earth Environ","accessDate":null,"startPage":55,"volume":3,"footnoteNumber":9,"year":null},{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-10","url":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2021RG000757","name":"Mechanisms and impacts of Earth system tipping elements","authors":[{"name":"S. Wang"}],"authorShowsEtAl":null,"edition":null,"publication":"Reviews of Geophysics","accessDate":null,"startPage":null,"volume":61,"footnoteNumber":10,"year":null}],"imageAssets":[]}},{"id":"65c55d4f9e947c438698b67f","name":"Interactions between earth systems","path":"/sub-topics/interactions-between-earth-systems","outlineNumber":"3.2.3","slug":"interactions-between-earth-systems","__typename":"Platform_SubTopic","color":null,"topic":{"id":"65c55d599e947c438698b7b0","slug":"earth-systems-modelling","path":"/topics/earth-systems-modelling"},"intro":{"text":"The various Earth systems cannot be fully understood in isolation. For example, humanity’s greenhouse-gas emissions are heating up Earth’s climate, and this is having knock-on effects for the biosphere, the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, and wildfires. Furthermore, these systems then feed back into the climate: plants and microbes, for example, exchange gases with the atmosphere.[11](/citation/2024-03-3-2-11/) [12](/citation/2024-03-3-2-12/) Therefore, climate change is inextricably bound up with other environmental issues such as biodiversity loss and pollution. Understanding these linkages is essential: for example, improved spatial and temporal understanding of regions likely to become uninhabitable has enabled prediction of forced migrations.[13](/citation/2024-03-3-2-13/)"},"description":{"text":"This means that an essential part of Earth Systems modelling involves exploring the interplay across different systems and developing models that take all of the systems into account. This requires integrating data from a wide variety of systems — and from a variety of sources, such as field measurements and remote-sensing technologies.\n\nOne of the most high-profile attempts to quantify whole-Earth processes is the concept of “planetary boundaries”. This aims to identify a set of Earth systems, each of which is essential to human survival and wellbeing. An initial assessment in 2009 identified nine, ranging from biosphere integrity and freshwater use to land-system change.[14](/citation/2024-03-3-2-14/) It further concluded that humanity had already pushed past three of the boundaries, taking our species outside its “safe operating space”.[15](/citation/2024-03-3-2-15/) However, there are large uncertainties around the size and rate of change we are causing, whether the current list of boundaries should be amended[16](/citation/2024-03-3-2-16/) and how the different boundaries interact. The “boundaries” framing has also been questioned: in the absence of tipping elements, Earth systems degrade gradually so hard limits are difficult or impossible to specify."},"anticipationScores":{"text":"The Anticipation Potential of a research field is determined by the capacity for impactful action in the present, considering possible future transformative breakthroughs in a field over a 25-year outlook. A field with a high Anticipation Potential, therefore, combines the potential range of future transformative possibilities engendered by a research area with a wide field of opportunities for action in the present. We asked researchers in the field to anticipate: \n\n1. The *uncertainty* related to future science breakthroughs in the field\n2. The *transformative* *effect* anticipated breakthroughs may have on research and society\n3. The *scope for action* in the present in relation to anticipated breakthroughs. \n\nThis chart represents a summary of their responses to each of these elements, which when combined, provide the *Anticipation Potential* for the topic. See [methodology](/science-anticipation/methodology) for more information."},"anticipationScoresImage":{"id":"65c55cee9e947c438698a9dc","image":{"id":"image_gesda-platform/image-asset/ic-3-2-3-interactions-between-earth-systems-2024_image__3.2.3_nthmln","url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/shapeable/image/upload/v1726449484/gesda-platform/image-asset/ic-3-2-3-interactions-between-earth-systems-2024_image__3.2.3_nthmln.webp","url2x":null,"width":1200,"height":1200}},"horizons":[{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a7e1","name":"3.2.3 - 25-year horizon","slug":"3-2-3-25-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Computing advances improve climate interventions"},"description":{"text":"Exascale computing allows data from all Earth systems (including their interactions) to be integrated into the best sets of models at high resolution. This enables ensemble-based predictions and deeper, more reliable understanding of where interventions will have the greatest impact on climate change."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89c","name":"25-year horizon","slug":"25-year-horizon","years":25,"title":"25-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a7e0","name":"3.2.3 - 10-year horizon","slug":"3-2-3-10-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"An array of sensing technologies feed into modelling of system exchanges"},"description":{"text":"Improvements in LIDAR, satellite-based sensing and infrared spectroscopy provide more reliable data on gas exchanges between biosphere and atmosphere, which improves Earth-Systems modelling."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89b","name":"10-year horizon","slug":"10-year-horizon","years":10,"title":"10-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}},{"__typename":"Platform_Horizon","id":"65c55ce69e947c438698a7df","name":"3.2.3 - 5-year horizon","slug":"3-2-3-5-year-horizon","intro":{"text":"Planetary boundaries are better understood"},"description":{"text":"Researchers gain a clearer understanding of the interdependence between planetary boundaries and significantly improve estimates of the safe limits for pollution."},"color":null,"type":{"__typename":"Platform_HorizonType","id":"65c55ce79e947c438698a89a","name":"5-year horizon","slug":"5-year-horizon","years":5,"title":"5-year","subtitle":"horizon"},"embeds":{"citations":[]}}],"indicatorValues":[{"id":"65c55cf49e947c438698aaf6","value":"0.561","numericValue":0.561,"year":2024,"indicator":{"id":"65c55cf29e947c438698aa4d","name":"Anticipation Potential","title":null,"slug":"anticipation-potential","dataSetId":"ANTICIPATION_POTENTIAL","color":null}}],"embeds":{"citations":[{"slug":"2024-03-3-2-11","url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14807","name":"How eddy covariance flux measurements have contributed to our understanding of Global Change Biology","authors":[{"name":"D. 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